A Statistical Research On The Relation Between The Development Of China Civil Aviation And Economic Growth

Civil aviation transportation industry is an important department and plays animportant role in the devolopment of social economy. It is a good opportunity toachieve the stride from a big country to a powerful country in terms of civil aviationdevelopment in the first 20 years of this century.To realize the historic leap and makecivil aviation go forward to the right diection request us to take hold of the inner lawof civil aviation's development and draw out reasonable industrial policy.This paper studies the relationship between the devolopment of civil aviation andeconomic growth by employing the approaches of cointegration theory.And thenestabalishes error correction model to look for the short-term dynamic change andlong-term equilibrium.Next this paper uses Granger causality test to explore causalityrelationship bewteen them,in the end uses impulse response function and variancedecomposition analysis to examine the degree of influence between them and thengive the suggestion for industrial policy and civil aviation's development.The main conclusion and policy suggestion of this paper are as follows:Fisrt,there exists the long-term equilibrum between development of civil aviation andeconomic growth and China's civil aviation market is developing far frommaturity.Second , economic growth can push civil aviation's development but vice notversa.There are plenty of problems in the development of China civil aviation,theopen of civil aviation market is inevitable but needs step by step.The probable innovation of this paper lies in four aspects.First,this papercalculates the concrete coefficient between the devolopment of civil aviation andeconomic growth.Second,this paper makes use of E-G two steps method and Johansenmaximum likehood estimation method at the same time to explore cointegrationrelation bewteen GDP and civil aviation's ton kilometers,and receive the sameconclusion.Third,impulse reponse function and variance decomposition analysis areused in the empirical analysis.Fourth,this paper brings forward suggestions for civilaviation's industrial policy based on the results of empirical analysis,which makes thebetter combination between quantitative computation and qualitative analysis.