| The research of exchange rate is a hot topic in the area of macroeconomics. Theexchange rate of RMB plays an important role in our country's economy andinternational trade. The objective of reforming the exchange rate system of RMB is toperfect the exchange rate mechanism of RMB and to keep the exchange rate stable inreason and equilibrium. To solve this problem well, we must make clearly whichfactors determine the exchange rate of RMB. In the face of this situation, it ismeaningful to make quantitative analysis of exchange rate of RMB. In this paper,cointegration test is used to analyze the long time equilibrium relationship and shorttime fluctuation relationship of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and consumerprice index, interest rate, monetary supply. The result testifies that there exists longtime equilibrium relation between the real effective exchange rate and consumer priceindex. In addition, when RMB exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium leveldetermined by consumer price index, it needs 12.5months to resume. There doesn'texist relation between real effective exchange rate and interest rate, also between realeffective exchange rate and monetary supply. The result is caused by our country'sspecial exchange rate system, the limitation of PPP theory, lower capital accountopenness and the weak relevance between monetary supply and price index. |
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