Study On Estimating Models Of China Capital Flight Scales

After joined into the WTO, China has got a more opened market. That will make China face more severe challenge at the same time. Capital flight is becoming a great hidden danger of China's finance and even economy. We must recognize the reason , the current situation and the controlling method of capital flight. And then we can uphold the financial security of our country and promote the smooth development of China economy.At the base of the scholar studying for this subject, this paper proceeded with general theory of capital flight. The definition and the common different calculating method of capital flight were analyzed. It establishes the foundation for the example research to the state of capital flight of China. Has taken state of Chinese capital flight as an example, This paper has probed into the influences which are from foreign businessman's direct investment to capital flight and calculated the scales of capital flight of China. These were the key part of this paper too.While studying the influences which are from foreign businessman's direct investment to capital flight, I have not only analyzed the influences to capital flight in theory in the paper, but also completed the Unit Root Test and the Granger Causality Test by setting up the measuring economic model. Have verified the direct foreign investments were one of the reasons causing capital flight. This has offered basis on the theory for the pertinence of policy designation in practice of administrating capital flight.While estimating the scale of capital flight of China, according to real conditions and state of China, I have designed the estimating models of capital flight and paid close attention to its rationality and comprehensive in the paper; Then I have proceeded the example research to the scale of capital flight of China with the newly estimating models and extended the scale estimating of capital flight of China to 2003. That has made the research become real-time.Although the scale of capital flight has the drop tendency in our country, it was still so huge that the tremendous disadvantageous influence to our country economy is produced. When our national policy and laws is more perfect then we can effectively prevent capital flight.But because of my ability limitation and this subject's deepness and extent, the paper still exists more insufficient and need further research and perfection.