| With the deepening of the global economic integration,international capital flow has become the most active force in the world economy.As a kind of hidden capital flow,capital flight is hard to measure and has a great negative impact on a country’s economy.Since 1990s,China has contiuned to introduce foreign capital in a large number,but there is an obvious phenomenon of capital flight.The International Monetary Fund estimated that China’s capital flight in 1990s was 800-1000 billion,and China could be the fourth largest capital flight country after Venezuela.Mexico,Argentina.China’s entry into WTO in 2001,we are facing a more open market,which means facing a more severe challenge in the regulation of capital flows.In recent years,our government actively promotes RMB international strategy,the speed of opening the capital projects have accelerated fastly.Although the convertibility of RMB capital account can bring many advantages to our country,it also provides more channels for capital flight,which increases the risk of capital flight.In recent years,as the domestic economy gradually downward,the public opinion about a hard landing in China has further increased investor’s doubts and stimulated the capital flight.Therefore,in the complex economic situation at home and abroad and under the background of gradually relaxing capital controls in China,to reasonable estimate the size of the capital flight,in-depth analysis the influencing factors of China’s capital flight.It has an important practical significance for our country to effectively guard against capital flight,better use of domestic and foreign capital,and promote steady economic growth.The paper includes six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction part,which mainly describes the research background and significance of the paper,and clarifies the research findings,innovation points and deficiencies.In the second chapter,we recall the different definition and calculation methods of capital flight,compare advantages and disadvantages of direct measuring method of capital flight,indirect measuring method,and Hybrid measuring method,and briefly reviews the scales of capital flight calculated by some Chinese scholars.Besides,we also review the factors affecting capital flight from the perspective of empirical analysis.The third chapter analyzes the basic situation of China’s capital flight.Firstly,to define the concept of capital flight according to the actual situation of our country.Secondly,use the errors and omissions in the table of balance of international payments to investigate the capital flight scale and its trend in our country over the past 20 years.Then from the point of view of economic system and the macroeconomic environment,we analyzed the reason that cause China’s capital flight detailly.Finally summarizes the channel of capital flight,The results show that capital flight is mainly by means of current account,the capital and financial account,underground channels,a variety of forms,with a country’s economic development and changes of international economic environment,capital flight is constantly changing and the trend of high-tech.Chapter four respectively use adjusted direct measurement method and the indirect method to estimate a rough scale of capital flight in China,then use the misinvoicing results to make a further modification,finally come to the total size of China’s capital flight and the calculation results are brief analysis,results show that the scale of capital flight is fluctuant growth,although the reversal for some years,but capital flight growth did not change.And the capital flight has a strong sensitivity to the macroeconomic situation,showing a certain stage characteristics.In the fifth chapter,by establishing the econometric model to test the factors that affect the capital flight in China.The results show that direct investment,domestic and foreign interest rate,the external debts have positive influence on our country capital flight,which is consistent with theoretical expectations.But the devaluation of the currency have a negative influence on capital flight which is not conformity with the theory,it may be related to the choice of proxy variables.In the sixth chapter,we put forward several policy suggestions according to the empirical results,ways of capital flight and some of the institutional factors that affect the capital flight.Such as to maintain domestic economic growth,deepening of financial reform,establish and improve monitoring system and so on. |
