The Empirical Study On Export Trade And Sustainable Growth Of China Economy

There have been different opinions about the effect and the channel function that foreign trade produces on economic growth. In terms of the effect, it can fall into Trade Optimism Theory, Trade Pessimism Theory and Trade Neutralism Theory; as far as the functional channel is concerned, it mainly includes exploiting idle resources, promoting the optimal allocation of resources, forming scale economy, propelling institutional innovation, stimulating technological advance and integrating human capital etc.This thesis emphatically chooses export trade as the subject by taking human capital as the channel, and further reveals whether export trade and human capital can integrate into each other so as to promote sustaining economic growth. By adopting the econometric analysis based on Panel Data, this thesis presents the research about the relationship among export trade, human capital and economic growth in different provinces, cities and autonomous regions of China from the year of 1995 to the year of 2003.From the angle of function channel of trade, this thesis groups relevant theories among export trade, human capital and economic growth into six categories and elaborates them respectively, emphatically illuminates the important role of the human capital channel, and further reviews literatures about empirical research on trade and economic growth. Besides, this thesis presents a comparative analysis among export trade, human capital, and the pro status and influencing factors of the whole economy. Furthermore, this thesis respectively introduces the difference of export trade in such respects as scale, main body and structure, the disparity of human capital in such aspects as stock, initial level, growth rate and the extent of specialization, and the difference of GDP (Gross Domestic Products) and per capita value in stock and growth rate. Last, this thesis gives further analysis of the cause of forming the above-mentioned differences.On the basis of experimenting with the effect of in-born human capital of China on fostering economic growth, this thesis points out that the externality of humancapital in more developed costal areas is more advantageous than that in mid-western areas. Besides, this thesis further tests the model of human capital accumulation propelled by trade, indicating that the export trade in eastern areas is able to promote the accumulation of specialized human capital in a conspicuous way, while the export trade in other areas only results in the accumulation of human capital at a lower level. By introducing the factor of human capital into establishing the empirical model of the effect of export trade on economic growth in different areas of China and by estimating the model by means of Panel Data, the conclusion is drawn that in terms of the positive effect of export effect on economic growth, there still exists a critical effect at the current stage of China. Exactly speaking, only after economy advances into a certain level can the spillover effect of export trade be shown, and the differences of the spillover effect be distinct in different areas of China. The areas, with a distinct spillover effect of human capital, turn out to be the ones with the effective accumulation of human capital, while the trade effect of human capital, in these areas with relatively weak spillover effect, is weak accordingly too, which to some extent indicates that the export trade of China via the channel of human capital can indeed promote sustaining economic growth, and that insuring the smooth operation of every tache in the influencing chain is an effective means to guarantee sustaining economic growth.Last, this thesis, aiming at the pro status of export trade structure and the low level of human capital at the current stage in China, puts forward some suggestions from the angle of policies on the basis of empirical analysis.