Study On Risk Decision Methods For Real Estate Investment Based On Entropy Theory

With the further reform and opening, having joined into WTO and the establishment of mechanism of market system, the economic would still develop fast and stablely in China. With the process of city modernizing, there is brilliant prospect and immense market demand in the real estate in the future.The real estate investment is characteristic of high risk and high yield. Investing the real estate would face many uncertain factors, it is affected by many aspects such as politics and regulations, economics, society, technology, naturalness, and so on. In fact, the risk lies in all joints and all period of investment programme, it lies in the whole develop process. How to find and analyse all kinds of the factors, and how to analyse the risk factors quantitatively, then to evaluate the risk level, compare the risk levels of all investment projects, finally, make the risk-decision, these are the main contents and questions that the thesis would like to solve and discuss.In detail, the paper mainly discuss such following content:First, the paper introduce the notion of risk, then analyse the attitude of risk and the measurement of risk.Second, the paper reviews some methods of risk quantitative analysis about the real estate investment.Third, according to the whole process of the real estate developing, this section analyse the risk factors for all periods, then introduce some approaches of risk identification.Forth, in this section, we introduce the conception of entropy, and apply the maximum entropy rule to the evaluation of risk, in the following, the paper analyse some factors' probability distributions. In the end, a model is erected for real estate risk evaluation.Fifth, this chapter mainly introduce the multi-objective decision, then use the entropy weight and specialist weight together to formulate the compound weight and make risk-decision according to the risk decision rule.Finally, the paper make a conclusion about the whole thesis, and discuss some questions that still need to study and solve.