A Research On Warning And Preventing Of Banking Crisis In Market Orientation Of Interest Rate

The market-oriented reform of interest rate system is inevitable. During the past over twenty years, interest rate is the only price form which has not been market oriented yet. It can be expected that the market orientation reform of interest rate will speed up. When the interest rate has been market oriented, it would be impacted by the market forces more than before, and it would move according to market laws.market orientation of rate will influence bank system's managing environment and management. The level of interest rate would change frequently and be hard to forecast. Then, paralleling with liquidity risk, credit risk, exchange rate risk, and interest risk. If these risks can't be treated correctly,they might result in banking risk.It is very important to warn and prevent banking risk. So there is theoretical and practical significance to choose this theme, which is concerning the market-directed reform of interest rate system and warning and preventing banking crisis, as the topic of this paper.This article adopts a research method which is a combination of theoretical study and practical study, normative study and empirical study. It also makes some comparison and logical-inference. The article starts with illuminating the effect that market-directed reform of interest rate would have on the management of commercial banks, and the risks arise from the effect. Later, with the help of measuring-technology for risks, which have already been created, this paper makes an empirical study about the degree of banking crisis, and points out the insufficiencies in commercial banks' management. At last, from an evolutive point of view, the article brings forward some suggestions for constructing warning system of banking crisis, and encounterments for preventing banking crisis including perfecting financial safety web,improving commercial banks'preventing ability and strengthening controlling "hot money".In terms of innovation, from the points of constructing warning system of banking crisis.It is composed of index system,defending limit,transacting data and lamp showing. Firstly,construct an index system which exactly reflects bank system' risk situation, secondly,according to historical experience on economical development,confirmevery index's defending limit.Thirdly,in AHP endue second-rank proportion to every index .Lastly,with lamp show bank system's crisis status.