Research On China's Early-Warning And Preventing Currency Crisis

Research on Early-Warning and Preventing Currency Crisis is a complicated issue of multi-level and multi-perspective. To carry on a systematic and deep investigation in this issue entails an accurate point cut. At first, this paper gives defination of currency crisis, and does specific analysis on the reasons and characteristics of currency crisis. Then it reviews the history situation of the theory of currency crisis, and does deep appraise on the specific cases of the countries which have broken out currency crisis since 1990s'. On such basis, it choose Logistic Analyse as the empirical research method after comparing prevailing currency crisis early warning models. It finally selects early warning index system and presents an early warning model of China crurrency crisis. Based on preceding research, it puts forward preventive measures against currency crisis in the background of RMB capital account liberalization.According to the train of thoughts above, the paper is divided into 4 parts:The first part includes Chapter 1 "Introduction". In this part, it clarifies the meaning of theory and practice, and makes sure the studying orientation on the basis of the research of currency crisis early warning models at home and abroad. Then, it brings up the structure and the main innovations and disadvantages of this paper.The second part consists Chapter 2 "The Reasons, Characteristics and models of Currency Crisis" and "The Analysis of Currency Crisis since 1990s' ". In this part. It gives a summary of the differences and relations of each defination of currency crisis after appraising on it, and reviews the history situation of the models of it; For the next chapter of the case lay the theoretical foundation for analysis. And then, It lists three time of currency crisis which have an promote influence since 1990s', and has find the rule by comparing the situation, reasons and deal measures of each crisis. It gives us a way to build the early warning system and find methods to deal with the currency crisis which is being broke up;The third part consists Chapter 4 "currency crisis warning and application in China." In this part on the basis of comparing the main early warning methods, using selected early warning index system, it chooses Factor Analysis approach and Logistic Regression approach, two methods together, to get a prediction model. At the end, it analyzes and verifies the model.Part IV include Chapter 5"The Currency Crisis Preventive Measures in The Background of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation" It does deep research on the RMB exchange rate floating scope of the widening of how to prevent currency crisis from five aspects including the need to actively implement and adhere to long-term domestic demand-led economic development strategy, maintain the scale of foreign exchange reserves, strengthen the reserves of effective management, the introduction of FDI strategy, which encourages domestic enterprises to invest overseas, cautious capital projects, and gradually make the renminbi convertible under the capital account, actively promote the reform of the international financial system, international financial cooperation, and enhance the ability to prevent risks.