An Empirical Test Of China 's Monetary Policy On Output Effect Based On VAR Model

Before2008, our country macro-monetary policy is to prevent inflation from tight, but in2008September, China’s macro-control objectives immediately turns to maintain economic growth, and launched an unprecedented$4plan, but with the world continuously exit the positive economic stimulus policy, our country is new round macro adjusting control immediately to prevent inflation.These series of changes is fast and urgent, just like a roller coaster. This also caused me to focous on China the current monetary policy validity concerns. Compared with the western theory, the Chinese theory of monetary policy is relatively lagging. At the same time, because of China’s economic structure is special, western monetary theory cannot be used to explain Chinese economy directly. So this article from a new angle to analyze, the present stage our country various monetary transmission channels.This article focous on the most currently transmission channels of monetary policy in China:interest rate channel, monetary channel and credit channel, and analysed and summarized the results of previous studies; and in the third chapter, introduce the empirical analysis, and then use vector autoregressive model VAR, to our country nearly ten years of data analysis, draws some conclusions and policy suggestions. From the improvement of the transmission system, we should vigorously develop currency market, and gradually achieve the liberalization of interest rate, and to avoid excessive frequent monetary policy operation.The main conclusion of this paper is the following:a) Transmission channels of interest rate, currency and credit are effective in China;b) Monetary policy is non-neutral in the short term, and is neutral in the long term;c) Monetary channel and credit channel impulse response is more durable than the interest rate channel;d) MO impulses role is relatively weak on GDP&CPI;M2, M1impact is closer on GDP; M1is more rapid than M2in the role of impact on the CPI;e) Also has Price Mysteries-tightening of policy impact, resulting in a positive impulse response;f) CS has a negative effect on GDP, CPI the begaining of the impulse response, the negative impact should be regarded as the crowding-out effect of government investment.