The Products Price Risk Of Livestock Producer In China And Suggestions

Livestock agriculture is the base of a country's economic. The development of livestock agriculture influences the economic interests of all the people. It is crucial factor for improve people's living standards and quality. However, a large proportion of the livestock products are low quality and generally falls short of food national safety standards and their price frequently fluctuate. Besides, livestock agriculture is vulnerable to the epidemic grown. For its healthy development, we must pay attention to research these issues.The prices of livestock product and its effect is the emphasis of the article. So far, the research about this question mainly focuses on qualitative analysis and there are few of quantitative studies. Therefore, the article attempts to analyze the market price risk and the related laws of livestock products in statistical and mathematical theory and methods. Because of the diversity of factors that affect livestock product prices, different methods are used according to characteristics of these factors.Firstly, a price risk index is established to quantitatively descript the price risk of animal products which changes over time, so that different types of animal products may compare with each other. Relative with the price charts of animal products, it is also proven the credibility of the index.Secondly, based on comparative results above, the article focuses on the analysis of the price laws about pork, chicken and egg whose risk is larger than mutton and beef. Granger test and VAR model is established about time series models of the prices of eggs and feed. The result shows that the prices of animal products to feed prices are influential, and there is still cyclical impact, the availability of the impact for feed price on livestock products prices is decided on the organizational forms of production. Through the creation of dynamic game models proved that organization has an important influence to the price of livestock product and information is of great value for the both side transaction. The greater price changes and the more valuable information are. The parity of piggy and pig is used to reflect the transactions active level of piggy market. Through compare the parity with the priced of pig, found that the parity of piggy and pig is available to forecast the future price of pig. If the current parity is rising, pig's prices will decline after 4~6 months and vice versa;In addition, this article also analyzed others factors affecting the price of animal product, such asgeographical differences, seasonal and production cycles, substitution effects, international competition and unexpected incidents.Finally, on the basis of previous findings, the article suggests some measures that farmers and the government should take.