| Since the reform and opening up,the rapid development of animal husbandry has become an important industry in agriculture in China.With the continuous improvement of residential living standards,the population continues to expand,consumer concepts are gradually changing,and food safety awareness is constantly increasing,national consumption and annual consumption characteristics are becoming more prominent,meat consumption is increasing year by year,and the importance of animal husbandry development to the national economy and the people's livelihood is increasing as well,and therefore,changes in the price of livestock products may affect the people's livelihood and the national economic development,and may even affect the stability of the economic operation.Keeping the main livestock products price stable is an important basis for the stability of the market of agricultural products,and also an important manifestation of people's livelihood and an important indicator of people in peace and contentment and harmonious society.From the perspective of ecology,health and economy,it can be seen that the rational and orderly operation of the main livestock products is an important foundation for the stability of agricultural products market,and is an important prerequisite and basis for the sustained and healthy economic development.In this dissertation,from the perspective of reform and innovation,an in-depth study is conducted on the main livestock products price risk early warning.An approach is proposed that the optimization direction of the price risk warning of animal products is based on the perspective of the target price,mainly from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative to explore the rationality and scientificity of the main livestock products price risk pre-warning method,establish specific target price based model,and put forward reasonable price risk early warning area.On the basis of full evaluation,the dissertation puts forward valuable policy recommendations on the production,marketing,circulation,reserves and import of animal products.The dissertation focuses on the following aspects of the innovative research:1.To analyze and summarize of the operation,fluctuation and risk factors of the main livestock products in China.In this dissertation,we analyze the price fluctuation of the main livestock products using the method of wave feature analysis,cycle analysis and probability density.The current situation and main influencing factors of the price movement of pig and pork,beef,mutton and other main animal products are summarized in this dissertation.This paper focuses on the operation characteristics of price of animal products.Such as the the main livestock products prices showing a long term upward trend,with obvious seasonal variation characteristics,the information asymmetry in the animal husbandry upstream-downstream,and the livestock products prices upstream-downstream prone to fluctuations.Fluctuations in the prices of the main livestock products has a set of clusters of features,the overall parity between pork,beef and sheep rises after falling trend,and the price of livestock products cycle length decreases in recent years.The livestock product main sale price is usually higher than the price from main producing areas,but the difference between the price of main livestock products production and consumption regions in recent years has shown a trend of decrease.The law of changes in the price of livestock products is also summarized.For instance,the farming costs and steady growth of market demand are the important factors affecting the price of the main animal products.Increasing the proportion of large-scale farming is an important influencing factor of the main livestock products price stabilization,and the epidemics of livestock and poultry is the direct cause of the price abnormal fluctuations.Market policy,economic environment,natural environment,technical level,and changes in living habits are important factors affecting the price of animal products.As the conclusion,the paper detailed sums up the price risk factors of market,environment,policy and so on.The risk factors of main livestock products price fluctuation includes the non-steady supply of animal husbandry market,the restriction of development of standardization scale of main animal husbandry,imperfect animal products market circulation system,weak service awareness,lack of the scientific nature of animal products breed,slow development of agricultural cooperative organizations,lack of animal husbandry leading enterprises and lack of deep processing ability and so on.The main external environment risks of the main animal products are grassland and other ecological environment changes risk,food safety risk,epidemic risk,etc.The main livestock products price policy risk factors are mainly related policy formulation being not reasonable and the implementation not in place.These policies have certain lag and inclusive nature,and are lack of stability,with not clear timing and not enough depth of the study and imperfect early warning policy system,etc.2.To propose the original idea of the price risk early warning of the main animal products based on the target price.From the historical perspective,the price risk early warning measures adopted by our country for the price of livestock products are very limited.Compelled by the situation,the state issued a policy of “Ease the Market Price of Live Pigs Cyclical Fluctuation Control Plan” to the hog market in 2012.The plan uses the pig grain parity as basic indicator for early warning and the sows' quantity change as reference to make timely adjustment according to hog production,cost and market demand changes.This control policy is simple and practical,but has the disadvantage of after-alarming,measure lags and lack of considerations.Moreover,for cattle and sheep markets,the state has not yet established a national price risk early warning mechanism.With the rapid development of animal husbandry and continuous improvement of residential living standards,the consumption of pork,beef,and mutton is increasing year by year.People's demand for livestock products is increasing as well,especially the demand for high quality beef and mutton increases more,and in the short term market,the increase in the production of cattle and sheep is limited.In this case,the market price risk is rising.From the historical experience,the law of market changes and the current situation of China's economic development,the direction of optimization and inevitable choice for the future main livestock products price risk pre-warning method is a method based on target price perspective,to show more respect to market operation and law of changes and follow the rules of regulation and control.This dissertation proposes the main livestock products price risk early warning method from the perspective of target price and formulates the pre-warning scheme.The solutions include factors selection,determination of target price calculation method and target price risk warning area,monitoring and early warning mechanism set up,relevant policies and measures to coordinate with implementation.Macroeconomic indicators including the gross domestic product(GDP)growth rate,the consumer price index(CPI)growth rate,total population,and total retail sales of social consumer goods growth rate will be included into the pre-warning system.Income indicators including per capita disposable income of urban residents,per capita net income of rural households,per capita food expenditure of urban household,and per capita food expenditure of rural households,labor indicators including average wages of employees from agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fisheries,the production index including output of pork,beef,mutton and slaughter of pigs,cattle and sheep,breeding cost index such as corn price,and price indictors including pig,pork,beef and mutton are all included into the pre-warning system,in order to accurately reflect market changes and price risk.The new and original price risk early warning method of the main animal products based on the target price will realize the gradual shift from the government led regulatory ideas to the ideas of one can play the role of market allocation of resources using the market to regulate the inherent law of change,from relying on historical experience in the past to using econometric method combined with external factors judgment to control,from the price ratio control in the past to price regulation of the range,from the past passive coping regulation to active forecasting and active coping regulation,from the past single price subsidy regulation to the price subsidy and price insurance parallel control mode.3.To establish a scientific and reasonable target price based model of animal products,and to calculate the target price early warning value,determine the corresponding price risk warning area.The National Development and Reform Commission,the National Bureau of Statistics,Ministry of Agriculture,China Animal Husbandry Association,collects economic and the main livestock products price data since 1978 and time series data of 20 economic indicators,as a model to establish a good foundation for the data.Using historical data,this dissertation uses VAR and ARMA model,respectively,to build the pig price,pork price,beef prices,mutton prices and animal products target price based models.By comparing the fitness of different models,the final price based model is determined.Based the model construction,and combined with existing research,historical experience,cost and market situation,to determine the four price risk warning regions of green region,blue region,yellow region,and red region,respectively for pig,pork,beef and mutton.This dissertation focuses on the relationship between population and individual.Based on the established price target early warning values for different livestock products,consider consumption weights,to determine the main livestock products overall target price warning values,and then determine the overall four price risk pre-alarm regions of green,blue,yellow and red,respectively.4.To put forward a scientific and reasonable evaluation method of the price risk early warning for main livestock products,and put forward a set of systematic,comprehensive,complete and scientific policy system.In order to make a comprehensive assessment of the price risk early warning method of the main livestock products,we find the problem in time and improve and adjust the method as needed.This dissertation puts forward the evaluation approach of the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis.Qualitative assessment program focuses on the content from the social,economic,ecological environment and so on.Social effect assessment focuses on the living standards of farmers,consumer demand for life,epidemic prevention and control,the transformation of animal husbandry,employment,national unity and social stability and other issues.Economic effect assessment focuses on market supply and demand relations and price levels,the income of farmers and operators,animal husbandry integrated cultivation capacity,economic efficiency,financial environment,market regulation,and other issues.Ecological environment effect assessment focuses on resource conservation and ecological environment improvement.Quantitative evaluation scheme focuses on evaluating the agreement for the price risk early warning model between the estimate of the target price early warning value and the actual value in the operation,error between predicted and the actual value and evaluating if the established price risk warning region reflects the actual price changes.Based on the evaluation of the early warning methods,a systematic,comprehensive,complete and scientific policy system is put forward,in order to maintain the reasonable price of the main animal products,and prevent price risk.This dissertation emphasizes to focus on combined application of single variety price risk pre-warning method and multi-product price pre-warning method,distinguish the policy direction between price rising and falling risk early warning,closely track the price change of the main animal products price risk early warning and the variety risk conduction,make adjudging of the main livestock products price inflection and the turning point of price risk level change,focus on the animal products price risk alarm caused by the epidemic such as sudden,catastrophic events,and keep pace with the times to optimize and adjust the main animal products price risk early warning methods.In the combination of price risk early warning methods and policy measures,pay attention to the differences of animal products,study and formulate corresponding policies and measures from the angle of social,economic,environmental,ecological and sustainable,and production,circulation and consumption.Focusing from farming,circulation,consumption and safety,environmental protection,insurance,information and other important aspects,put forward the concepts of protecting the pig breeding,development of cattle and sheep breeding,and encouraging the cultivation of high quality.The idea of circulation and consumption is to rely on the domestic,reserves improvement,the smooth flow of logistics,strong supervision and the introduction of the futures circulation.Put forward the idea of quality over quantity of animal products,focus on strengthening the epidemic prevention and control,strengthen environmental protection work,and gradually restore good ecological safety and environmental protection recommendations.Put forward the proactive policy ideas of target price insurance mechanism;establish the main livestock products upstream-downstream information monitoring and early warning mechanisms,and describe in detail the overall design and overall plan for national livestock market price monitoring and early warning system.The policy recommendations proposed in this dissertation are directional,flexible and targeted,and strive to achieve a reasonable and orderly operation of the main livestock products. |
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