The Research On The Saving Of Inhabitants In City And Countryside Of The China

The present stage, the saving of inhabitants of China has continually and rapid growth. It mainly displays in two aspects. On the one hand, the China's final savings ratio continues high. On the other hand, inhabitant's deposit has rapid growth. Moreover the rate of rise of the inhabitant's deposit has also gone far beyond the rate of rise of the gross national product. The high growth of the saving is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it provides abundant fund for the nation. On the other hand, it not only brings the hidden danger to the development for the entire economy, but also affects the development of the capital market under the opening condition, as well as aggravates operational cost of the bank. Therefore the research on the saving has a vital significance to the economical and the financial development.First, the article proposes the'alternative hypothesis'model, and calculates the excess sensitively coefficient of inhabitant of the city and countryside by the quarter data of 2000 to 2005. Excess sensitively coefficient of the inhabitants is about 49% in city, and is about 19.5% in countryside. By the amended'alternative hypothesis'model, the article proves that excess sensitively coefficient equates to the income of the short-looking consumer accounts for the gross income. At the same time, it proves that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of the china is near zero.Next, the conclusion of the consumption utilizes to research on the saving. The saving of the short-looking consumers safeguards the smooth growth of the gross saving. The rate of rise of the short-looking consumers'saving slight surpasses the rate of rise of the income. The saving of the forward-looking consumers drives the rapid growth of the gross saving. The forward-looking consumers'saving in the city has rapid growth because of the legatary saving. The forward-looking consumers'saving in the countryside has rapid growth too because of the precautionary saving.Finally according to the conclusion, the article proposes policy advice from two aspects. The implementation of redistribution of income policy in the city and the establishment of the countryside's social security system safeguards economy's persistent development as well as the capital market and the bank. Because of the small of intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the interest rate policy's goal of People's Bank of China is a place at controlling the inflation and the excess investment on the permanent assets.