The Research On The Validity Of Monetary Aggregates Adopted As Intermediate Targets By Monetary Policy In Our Country

This thesis is to make a more though research on the validity of the monetary aggregates adopted as an intermediate target by the monetary policy in our country, employing methods of the theoretical and empirical analyses, of the qualitative and quantitative analyses.The whole thesis develops in accordance with the following order:the qualitative comparative analyses of intermediate targets'variables of monetary policy, the empirical analyses of our monetary aggregates'relativity and the empirical analyses of our monetary aggregates'controllability.Firstly, after the brief introduction to the theory of intermediate targets of monetary policy, the author qualitatively comparatively analyzes a variety of financial variables, such as interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, quantity of loans and monetary aggregates, which proves that the variables such as interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate and quantity of loans functioning as the present intermediate targets of monetary policy is not feasible in our country.The author also proposes the valid question of monetary aggregates'functioning as intermediate target.Secondly, the author firstly demonstrates that the demand regulatory policy could keep the currency value correspondingly stable and make economy go up more quickly, employing the image diagram of curves. And then the author effectively demonstrates that the relativity of between price, output and monetary aggregates is closer, employing co-integrated theory, the VEC(Vector Error Correction)model and the variance decomposition method for analyzing quarterly data from 1996 to the third quarter of 2005.Thirdly, the whole analysis of monetary endogeneity indicates: monetary aggregates have both the endogenous characteristic and the exogenous characteristic, but it is more strongly controllable as a whole. The analysis of monetary constitution indicates: the foundation currency is strongly controllable and the currency multiplicator isn't controllable, but it could be well and truly forecasted by the ARMA model, thus it's strongly predictable. Consequently, the author draws the conclusion that monetary aggregates are strongly controllable.Hereto, it's just valid in our country that monetary aggregates function as intermediate targets at present. But in the author'opinion, the variables such as interest rate and inflation rate could only function as intermediate targets in the future, when our reform is increasingly thorough and when the market economy system gradually...