Empirical Research On The Relationship Among Output, Price And Monetary Aggregates

Plans arrangements, fiscal policy and monetary policy is the government's main macro-control means. Practice has proved that planning arrangements and fiscal policies to achieve the desired results, because of its flexibility of monetary policy by increasing the central government's macro-control favored. China's monetary policy at this stage is mainly by regulating the money supply to achieve macroeconomic regulation and control, stabilization of currency value and use it to promote economic growth objectives. Foreign academics on Money Supply Study on the relationship between outputs prices,and never ceased, in recent years, the issue of China's gradual in-depth theoretical analysis, and more and more through empirical analysis to promote research and development. But as a result of the measurement method used, the sample interval, target selection, data processing, and other sectors have different, the conclusions are not the same. Study the past 10 years, China's money supply and the relationship between outputs prices is very theoretical and practical guidance significance.Theses first currency neutral and non-neutral, and, naturally endogenous theories were reviewed, comparing the money supply and interest rates as a monetary policy after the advantages and disadvantages of intermediate goals, pointing out that the money supply is part of China's current monetary policy intermediate goals a realistic choice, and interpretation of the Money Supply macroeconomic transmission mechanism. My thesis in general macroeconomic development on the basis of the status quo, recalled the evolution of China's monetary policy, at this stage remains of the money supply as an intermediate target is reasonable, and noted that the money supply growth on China's role in promoting economic growth.Based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR), a Construction of China's money supply, the price index, interest rates, investment in fixed assets, foreign exchange reserves and gross national product, and several indicators of the dynamic model, using methods ADF unit root test drawn all variables are non-stationary time series, in the sequence of non-stationary made from the few processed, the use of JJ test method verification between the variables with cointegration relationship, that is a linear combination of their long-term and stable relations can be a regression analysis. Paper use causal relationship test method has proven causal relationship between the variables and establish error correction model. The results show that the money supply through the monetary policy transmission mechanism has a significant impact on the macroeconomic At the same time, the actual output, foreign exchange reserves, and other macroeconomic variables with feedback on the role of the money supply, China's money supply at this stage reflect non-neutral and, naturally characteristics. Papers that the current monetary policy should adhere to the money supply capacity of intermediate goals, focusing on monitoring broad money M2, at the same time should pay due regard to interest rates.Papers to macroeconomic, monetary and financial analysis and measurement of combining the areas of the Empirical Analysis of standardized analysis and combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of combining discussed since the reform and opening up of China's comprehensive nature of the currency, and money supply as currency at this stage the feasibility of the policy, and China's current monetary policy put forward suggestions.