| This paper mainly studies the non-linear comprehensive appraisal and prediction, as well as its application to the assessment and forecasting of the local economy which is significant to make out the accurate and scientific strategies of the local economic development, to track and monitor the process of the application of these strategies, to feedback messages for the authority timely in order to make macro adjustment.This paper researches such non-linear assessing methods as the extension multi-factorial evaluation, the cluster analysis, the evaluation method with grey correlation degree, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the principal component analysis, the factor analysis and assess the economic development of each city of Jiangsu Province based on factor analysis. Firstly, we build the assessing system of indicators of the economic development in Jiangsu province. Then, based on the assessing system of indicators, according to relations, we replace several economic indicators about urban economy with less comprehensive economic indicators through factor analysis. Referring to the score of each city in these comprehensive economic indicators, we assess the economic development of each city. At last, with regard to the result of the appraisal, we give some proposals to improve economic development of Jiangsu Province.The research on forecasting method of chaotic economic time series is the important part of the nonlinear chaotic economic dynamic systems. Based on chaotic dynamic principle, phase space reconstruction of chaotic time series and part forecasting, a chaotic phase space model is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested by comparison of the real data with the regulative forecasting model for GDP, the gross industrial product, the first-industry product of 1985-2004 in Jiangsu Province. At last, we predict GDP, the gross industrial product, the first-industry product of 2005, 2010 and 2015 in Jiangsu Province. |
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