Chengdu Price Of Commercial Housing Factor Analysis With House Prices Forecast

Price of commercial dwelling house in Chengdu city has been rising in recent years. Some residents find that it is hard for them to buy a house because of high price; and some other residents find that their purchasing power is overdrawn. Therefore, the issue of price of commercial dwelling house has aroused great concerns. What factors in hell causes continually rising price of commercial dwelling house? This paper does much quantitative and qualitative analysis about price of commercial dwelling house in Chengdu city. One purpose of this paper is to have an overall, objective and right understanding of the influencing factors which affect the price of commercial dwelling house price in Chengdu city. The other purpose of this paper is to provide references for the decision-makers involved in the commercial dwelling house market.Firstly, the basic principles of demand and supply were implemented to make qualitative analysis of factors that influence the commercial dwelling house price in Chengdu city. The emphasis is to analyze the demand factors and supply factors about commercial dwelling house. There are eight aspects of demand factors considered. They are specialized as: the increase of average disposable income of citizens in Chengdu city, the acceleration of urbanization, the number increase of the houses, the rebuilding of the city, the credit support by the banks, investment and speculation in the market of commercial dwelling house, the irrational purchase of house and the flabbiness of the house safeguarding system. Three aspects of supply factors were analyzed: the increase of cost, the monopoly pricing, the relatively oversupply of big houses and short supply of medium and small houses. Combining the existing research results and the qualitative analysis in this paper, the paper pointed out that the urbanization, the rebuilding of the city, the increase of disposable income, the credit support policy, the increase of cost, the monopoly pricing and the structure contradiction of demand and supply are the vital influencing factors. The paper also pointed out that the root of the rising house price in Chengdu city is the extrusive contradiction of the demand and the supply. There are many factors that influence the house price; the factors analyzed here are representative factors, not all of the factors are analyzed. The reason is that any factor influences the demand side or the supply side first, and then it influences the house price, results showed that the increase of non-agricultural population have strong influence pushing the house price to a high level, but the increase in construction area have slightly influence on the decrease of house price. Based on the results, policy advices were provided to prevent house price going high. These policy advices included reasonable supply of land and strictly carry out the provision of "90 square meters more than 70%" included in the new "six principles of china's real estate market".Secondly, quantitative analysis is used to analyze the factors that influence the house price in Chengdu city. The first thing is to set up the function of the house price and its influencing factors. This paper used the house price related data froml997 to 2005. A multiple regression model is tried to set up, in which the price of commercial dwelling house is chosen as dependent variable, and the average disposable income, the non-agricultural population of Chengdu city, the GDP, the construction area, the completed area, the investment in the commercial dwelling house were chosen as independent variables. Finally, only the non-agricultural population of Chengdu city past the significance test, other independent variables were out. So the model set up included two variables, the house price as dependent variable, and the non-agricultural population as independent variable. Then the economic analysis of this model is given, the non-agricultural population of Chengdu city was considered to be the most important variable that influences price of the commercial dwelling house market. In the end of this part, the quantitative analysis was presented. It tried to figure out how much the price would increase if the non-agricultural population were increased.Finally, the forecast of house price is made. This regression model set up is the basis for the forecast. Conditional forecast method is used in this part, therefore, forecast first both the numbers of non-agricultural population in Chengdu city of 2006 and 2007. And then the house prices of 2006 and 2007 in Chengdu city were forecast, the numbers are 3276.41 and 3908.44 Yuan per square respectively.