The Simulation On The Development Of Rural Energy In Shandong Province Based On System Dynamics

The rural energy is an important domain which Chinese energy sustainable development,has the decisive influence to the development of rural economy society.For meeting energy demend, lots of commercial energy such as straws and fuelwood are consumed in rural areas of Shandong Province.The unreasonable energy structure has a sever impact on rural energy construction and is harmful for social,econnomic and environmental development.Therefore,the development of the rural renewable energy is beeoming more and more important.Optimizing of the consunmption structure of rural living energy usage and efficiently utilizing of energy have become a major component of the sustainable development strategy.The paper took the example of Shandong Province and based on the sufficient survey of supply and consumption of rural living energy usage and the comprehensive analysis of the total energy consumption and energy structure,it built up the system model of the development of rural enetgy in Shandong Province,divided it into five subsystems, including population,energy supply,renewable energy resources structure,and environment.Then it simulated the developing condition of Shandong rural energy from2010to2030with VENSIM. Through repeatedly simulating trials,it analyzed the trend of rural energy development and adjust factors of model in order to confim a rational plan to solve the problem of rural energy.By changing the value of the policy variables,the model was designed of9energy development program to simulate the trends of total energy. Finally,this paper expounded corresponding policy advice by policy simulation experiment.The simulated results showed that the proportion of traditional biomass energy consumption in rural areas of Shandong Province will continue to decline and the commercial energy consumption growth rapidly.Renewable energy development projects of solar and biogas provided a large number of high-quality energy and achieved remarkable rusults in ecological conservation benefits.The rural energy constrution should insist on the principles of environment-concerned treatment,struture optimization and sustainable consumption.The renewable energy development projects which focusing on methane and solar energy utilization are efficient strategies of solving the problem of rural energy development.