Research On Market Promotion Of New Energy Logistics Vehicle Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid development of China's social economy and the acceleration of urbanization,the automobile industry has also ushered in a prosperous development,and the number of motor vehicles has exploded.The resulting environmental pollution and energy depletion issues have prompted most automakers to turn their attention to the new energy field and produce vehicles that replace traditional fuel with electrical energy.In terms of logistics,with the continuous development of new retail industry,the city's requirements for short-distance distribution capability are constantly improving,providing a broad development space for new-energy logistics vehicles with advantages of energy conservation,environmental protection and strong short-distance distribution capability.However,as a new type of distribution vehicle,new energy logistics vehicle is still in the early stage of market development,and it still has many problems in vehicle performance,supporting infrastructure,industrial policy support and other aspects.It is necessary to create a good development environment by accelerating technology research and development,perfecting supporting facilities,and perfecting policy system.Based on the above background,this paper combines domestic and foreign research and references relevant theoretical knowledge,takes Beijing as an example,constructs the system dynamics model of the new energy logistics vehicle market,and focuses on exploring the internal changes of the new energy logistics vehicle market system under the policy change scenario based on the simulation results of the model.To be specific,this paper conducts relevant research from the following aspects:(1)Starting from the development status of the new energy logistics vehicle market,focusing on the pain points in the current market,systematically analyzing the main factors affecting the promotion of the new energy logistics vehicle market,and systematically sorting out the implementation status of industrial policies from the national and local levels.On this basis,combined with relevant research at home and abroad,the research idea of the full text is formed.(2)By learning from the research results of Rothwell and Zegveld on the classification of policy tools,this paper divides the policy tools involved in the new energy logistics vehicle industry into three types: supply-type,demand-type,and environmental-type,then analyzes and summarizes the mechanism of various policy tools to promote the development of new energy logistics vehicle industry and marketpromotion.(3)By introducing the system dynamics theory,the system elements contained in the new energy logistics vehicle market system are comprehensively considered with systematic thinking,and the system behavior and time boundary are demarcated.The influence path model of relevant industrial policies on the new energy logistics vehicle market promotion is constructed from the three dimensions of social economy,vehicle environment and market benefit.(4)The historical statistical data of Beijing and the actual data related to the model are selected as the system input,the structural equations of each parameter value and variable of the system dynamics model are determined,and the simulation environment of the new energy logistics vehicle market system of Beijing is built with Vensim software,and the simulation analysis and policy simulation are carried out.On the one hand,this paper predicts the future development trend of the new energy logistics vehicle market in Beijing.On the other hand,this paper simulates the internal changes of the system under different policy scenarios and explores the different policy-oriented institutions that affect the development of the new energy logistics vehicle market.The different implementation effects brought about provide support for micro-decisions of new energy logistics vehicle operating companies,and also provide references for policymakers to optimize their policies.