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The Influential Analysis To Investors Returns For Their Learning Behavior Under A Complex Information Environment

Posted on:2015-04-27Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S S YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2180330452459355Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the development of information technology, the interactive way based oninformation and the interaction network which individual investors among stockmarket faced is growing complexity. The information may come from the investors’own experience in analyzing the market environment, or from observing the behaviorof other investors, and communicating with others. By sharing and exchangingexperiences, investors with poor ability tend to learn the better investor’s investmentstrategy, while the investors with high ability will improve their investment capacitybased on historical data and relevant theoretical knowledge analysis. So learningbehavior of investors will have a profound impact on the stock market as well as themacroeconomic, and how the investors’ learning behavior impact on the stock marketwill have a very useful practical significance.Based on the heterogeneity investors, combined with information asymmetryphenomenon and accumulation phenomenon of trust in stock market, we constructan information diffusion network by considering the investors as the nodes,considering the information dissemination approach as edge and the constructpreferential attachment to simulate the investors’ learning process. By analyzing thestructure of the information diffusion networks, we learn about the learning styles andlearning time’s impact on investors’ returns, this will lead to a conclusion that whichlearning style investors should take and its impact on investor returns.Simulations and analysis this model, the result shows that learning cyclesinfluence the distribution and transition of investor yield. While the structure of thenetwork keeps constant, the increase of learning cycles will make the investor yieldmore decentralization so that the yield will transfer from the hub nodes to the normalnodes; the change of the scale of the network and the trust threshold will course thechange of the structure of the network, by which will influence the choice of thestrategy of learning and the distribution of investor yield.By analyzing the information diffusion network, this network has significantscale-free feature and weak small-world feature, and belongs to the social network.The changing of the nodes number and trust threshold will affect the networkstructure, thus will affect the investor returns. On this results, we can get a conclusionthat the best learning skill is mixed learning, while the worst is social learning; with the increasing nodes and number confidence threshold, the investors’ returndistribution map showing the dispersion after the first aggregation phenomena.Therefore, trusting in others on moderate level and keep the right scale of theinformation network can improve the investors’ ruturns. Under the condition ofinvariable of the network structure, who take the mixed learning style for a long timewill obtain higher returns.
Keywords/Search Tags:Complex network, Information diffusion, Learning Behavior, Theminority game, Trust
PDF Full Text Request
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