The Research Of Evolution Of Public Opinion Based On Expectation-driven Model

The transmission of information is more convenient due to the Internet and thisproduces public opinion and brings difficulty to social management. In recent years,many malignant collective events have occurred as negative public opinions weremalignantly spread, such as “Kunming Terror event”,“The horse boat lost events”,resulting in social instability and insecurity. The nature of these problems is the resultof the dynamic interaction of a large number of social individuals contacting with theexternal environment and other individuals, learning and making decisions. As aconsequence, it matters much to research on the evolution laws and formationmechanism of public opinion so as to provide theoretical basis for controlling thespread of public opinion.The essay aims to reveal the basic process of how this phenomenon emerges insocial network through researching on public opinion dynamic of complex networkand explore the influence that external environment factors have on the evolutiondynamics of public opinion through researching on the public opinion dynamics ofcomplex network. This essay introduces an index of social environmentE(expectation), and uses HK model as the basic public opinion evolution model. Andit studies the public opinion evolution dynamics on rule network. Based on a simpleprinciple, the essay sets the individual opinion in network as binary type, and onlyconsiders the mutual interaction of Moore neighbors, using Fermi function to confirmthe opinion changing probability of individuals with noises. The system status isrepresented by the average of the absolute value of all individual opinions.First of all, the essay studies how the system condition evolves over time indifferent expectations and different selection intensity using the synchronousupdating principle under the condition of fixed expectation. Most individuals havehave the same point of view in the system, only E in the appropriate range. Selectionintensity defines the relationship between rational and irrationalindividual.Secondly, considering the individual difference and the diversity ofexternal influential factors in system, the essay introduces variable A and studies thepublic opinion evolution dynamics on different expectation conditions using three kinds of functions, uniform distribution, exponential distribution and power lawdistribution. Finally, we studied the evolution of public opinion and systemsintrusionphenomenaon a dynamic network. Individual mobility hindered generating systemconsistency in the network.In conclusion, this essay researches onthe interaction mechanism and evolutionrule of the limited rational behavior main body’s opinion in public opinion processthrough the perspective of complex network. The essayaims to construct the publicopinion evolution model, explore the influence and the dynamic performance analysisof network structure, individual characteristics and view evolution mechanismbetween individuals, the group effect and dynamic evolution network on publicopinion propagation. Related research results will provide theoretical basis for peopleto understand and control the rules of the development of the network society andsocial behavior phenomenon, help perfect social learning theory under the networkera, and provide a new research angle for the complex social managementproblems.This paper is founded by the national natural science foundation of China(70271027,70601011).