Spatial-temporal Characteristics And Mechanism Of Population Aging Based On Cloud Model And ESDA

Population aging is a widespread issue, which involves in China’s economic construction, social security, and the consumer savings as well. It is quite significant to discuss the population aging from the geographical perspective, in this way, we can conductive to further understanding the aging population spatial evolution track, the inherent laws and its formation mechanism to provide some valuable references for the formulation of population policies, the optimal allocation of pension system construction funds and the rational distribution of the pension agencies.With this objective, I take Fujian province as a case, collect all census data and social economic data concerned, and study population aging in a period that is divided into three time-sections as 1990.2000 and 2010. Meanwhile, based on cloud model and ESDA method, taking the spatial factors into consideration, I study in depth on the development of population aging in Fujian province including its distribution characteristics, spatial agglomeration pattern, variation pattern, driving mechanism.The result shows that the multiple evaluation index method based on cloud model, which is used to evaluate population aging is feasible. Because of the inevitable fuzziness and randomness characteristics of population aging, the cloud model is introduced into comprehensively evaluating population aging at the county level of Fujian province. Meanwhile, some critical indicators such as Kernel density function, spatial correlation index and spatial-variogram are used to analyzing in this paper, and then I find, over the past 20 years, the evolution process of population aging and the distribution imbalance of elderly population in Fujian province are obvious. The conclusions are drawn as follows: ①Considering the overall population aging spatial regional framework, the county level population aging distribution shows relatively sparse in Northwestern Fujian, relatively dense in southeastern Fujian, while in central Fujian it presents the "hollowing out" phenomenon. ②The county level population aging distribution of Fujian province shows a strong natural correlation with down-falling temporal trend. The spatial structures of hot spot distribution and cold spot distribution also have obvious differences. The hot spot distribution evolves from coastal area to the inland area as the transition mutations, while the cold spot distribution shifts to opposite direction, presenting contractive gradients. ③ In the overall variation process, the influence of the random factors has increased, whereas the inner regional structural difference has decrease. At the same time, regional spatial differences have been more and more significant, and the NW-SE direction difference is the primary contributor to the expansion of population aging regional disparity.④Based on GWR model, different factors all affect population aging on the whole, but there are remarkable difference among different direction and degree in each region. In general, mortality rates and numbers of beds per one thousand people play a positive role in prompting population aging, while the birth rates, schooling years per capita, and immigration population rates have an inhibitory influence on population aging. As for per capita GDP, it affects population aging on both positive and inhibitory sides.In this paper, the fuzziness and randomness characteristics of population aging are pointed out, and the theory of cloud model is introduced into population aging evaluation. With these two, it better reflects the uncertainty when evaluating population aging. At the same time, there are few studies on population aging regional disparity at length. Therefore, based on this paper, the complexity and uncertainty of population aging regional disparity research will being enriched and lucubrated.