Dynamic Simulation And Scenario Analysis Of Land Use Change Based On The Improved CLUE-S Model

In recent ten years, the regional land use simulation is a hotspot of LUCC research, dynamic simulation of land use change is a very complex process. It is not only affected by natural, social, economic, technical conditions, but also because of the time and space scope. In this case, the land use change model provides an important means for us to understand the process of land use change and driving factors of change. This study aims at the international widely used model-CLUE-S model, based on the Logistic regression model with spatial autocorrelation variables on the improvement in2000and2010two period land use data, considering the driving factors of land use change will exhibit strong autocorrelation characteristics, we lead into a spatial auto-correlation (Autologistic regression) model based on traditional two value regression in CLUE-S, using the Markov model to predict various types of land use in2020, then simulate and set up three different scenarios of future land use. The results show that:Composite Markov model and Autologistic regression CLUE-S model have a good prediction and high precision. Land, water, construction land’s goodness of fit is improved greatly, respectively from0.715,0.736and0.748to0.769,0.797and0.774.In addition, the index(Kappa) to verify the accuracy of CLUE-S model is0.82, it shows a good predictive ability. Land use/land cover pattern has obvious spatial differences in three scenarios:Natural increase scenario’s construction land increase rapidly, it will occupy generous cultivated land and endanger food security according to the original rate, it’s not advisable; Ecological protection scenario has great benefits to improve the ecological conditions of Jiaxing, in this scenario cultivated land transformation rate decreased by53%and forest land increased45%based on2010, it is of great benefit to change ecological condition in Jiaxing City; Land optimization scenario give consideration to economic developments and ecological protection, the construction land add only70%of natural increase scenario, ensure the economic development and also leave enough space for ecological protection. Ecological protection scenario and land optimization scenario have a good regulation effect, and it can provide scientific decision reference for the local land use planning.