The Simulation Of Land Use Change Based On CLUE-S Model

With the deepening of study of global change, LUCC becomes a hot and frontierpoint in this field, and land use change and its change regularity is the important in study ofLUCC. HuaYang Rivers and Lakes in SuSong, Anhui Province at the junction of Anhui,Hubei and Jiangxi, and also at the north side of Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. It’ssuperiorly geographical position and resources and the problems of the land use changedecided this study of LUCC in this region have a significance meaning. Based on Remotesensing and Geography information system, and used TM and ETM+data of the year1990,2002and2010in the region of HuaYang rivers and lakes district. There we got six landuse type, include cultivated land, forest land, grassland, buildings, lakes and tidal flat. Thedynamic change course of the land use is analyzed in spatial and temporal view. After this,the future13years land use predicted by CLUE-S model in different dimension. There wegot four results as follows:First, the maps of the land use of the year1990/2002/2010are got via the Man-computerinteraction interpretation of the HuanYang Rivers and Lakes. Then the interpretationaccuracy is verified by compare with map of the second land use inventory and image ofGoogle Earth, the precision is90.51%and85.80%respectively. It’s indicated that theinterpretation maps are appropriate for CLUE-S model.Second, the results of analysis of land use change indicate that: from the view of time,cultivated and buildings are increased in total, the forest is decreased in first12years andincreased in last8years, and the water and tidal flat are decreased in the study period. Theaverage yearly rate of the land use change of each land use types from the year2002to2010are all faster than from the year1990to2002. From the view of the space, the water is mainly transition to tidal flat, and the tidal flat is mainly transition to cultivated and buildings,the cultivated also transition to buildings, and the forest and grassland are relatively stable.Third, by use six land use types and seven driving factors in different raster withresolution of60m×60m,120m×120m,180m×180m, the Logstic regression is analyzed. Theresults are checked by ROC and the ROC value is the highest with the resolution180×180m.so we decide this scale is the best in the simulation of the land use change in the study area.ROC result of cultivated, forest, buildings, water and tidal flat are all big than0.75, thesewere0.754、0.786,0.751,0.887,0.796respectively. The grassland is0.724, its due to thegrassland in this area distribute separately.Forth, the simulation of land use change based on CLUE-S model is appropriate for thestudy area, when chose the best resolution180m×180m, the simulation accuracy are all bigthan0.7. In time view, keep the resolution unchanged, the simulation accuracy will differentwith different simulation period. The best simulation period is about10-20years in HuaYangrivers and lakes district.From the simulation results, cultivated and forest are increased because in the studyperiod, local residents have great demand for cultivated land.the forest protection andrecovering are promotes forest increased. Buildings are also increased, but indistinctively. It’sdue to the demand of infrastructure are increased, but less than agriculture and fishery. Waterand tidal flat are all decreased, because the effect of human activity on the lakes and riversand tidal flat are strengthen. It’s difficult to control human to exploitation and utilization ofwater and tidal flat. The grassland decreased because of its distribution separately in thisregion and had a small quantity.This study can provide a scientific reference for the ecological utilization of land andoptimal regulatory.