An Empirical Study On The Propor-tion Of Chinese Health Expenditure In GDP

The proportion of NHE in GDP is an important index for evaluating whether health development adapts to national economic growth in the countries of the world, so it is rather important scientific value and practical significance to predict the trend of the proportion of NHE in GDP, in formulating economic policy of health, rational allocation and efficient use of health resources.The main work of this paper are:Firstly, this paper uses the ARIMA models to empirically analyze the proportion of NHE in GDP. First of all, it stabilizes the non-stationary sequence. Then according to the identification rules of the time series model, it establishes the appropriate model and uses white noise hypothesis testing for the residual series. Finally, that ARIMA model can be used to predict data;Secondly, according to the theory of variable selection, this paper finds out the main factors affecting the proportion of NHE in GDP. Then it tests the single and cointegration of the data. If the testing meets the requirements, it establishes the long-term equilibrium model and error correction model of the proportion of NHE in GDP. Finally, it uses the two models to conduct respectively a long-term and short-term points analysis and forecasting;Thirdly, this paper analyzes the predictive power of the ARIMA model, the cointegration and error correction model.Based on the above analysis, this paper has the following observations:First, in the short-term forecasting of the proportion of NHE in GDP, the ARIMA model is more accurate than the error correction model. In the long-term forecasting, the Cointegration model accuracy is quite high.Second, there is long-run equilibrium relationship among the proportion of NHE in GDP, per capita GDP, the number of doctors per thousand population and the number of the elderly population aged65and over.Third, in the long run, the proportion of the elderly population aged65and over is the most important factor in all factors affecting the the proportion of NHE in GDP. When the proportion increase1%, the proportion of NHE in GDP will increase1.4435%. In the short term, the proportion of the elderly population aged65and over has little effect on the proportion of NHE in GDP.