Watershed Hydrological Simulation And Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Watershed hydrological model plays an important role in studying watershed hydrology and water resources management, which can solve practical problems effectively. However, uncertainties exist in hydrologic model structure, parameters and inputs. It is imperative to evaluate these uncertainties in hydrological simulations to increase the accuracy of hydrological forecast.In this study, a fuzzy vertex simulation method (FVSM) is developed for assessing parameter uncertainty in hydrological possesses. The FVSM coupled fuzzy vertex analysis technique and semi-distributed hydrological model into a framework to reflect effects of uncertain parameters on hydrological possesses and modeling outputs. The Xiangxi River Basin in China is chosen as a study area for assessing uncertainty and demonstrating application of the proposed method. In the FVSM, TOPMODEL is used for predicting streamflow of saturated area in the catchment based on the distribution of the topographic index; vertex analysis method is useful for dealing with ambiguous coefficients based on fuzzy sets theory and α-cut analysis. The proposed method is useful for studying hydrological processes within a system containing multiple factors with uncertainties and the results can help decision makers to aid hydrologic forecasting and water resources management strategies.In the Kaidu River Basin snowmelt runoff is not only the main water source for the evolution of the Bayinbuluk grassland but also the principal source of water required for agriculture, and development of economy and society of these regions. So the snowmelt runoff model is developed to utilize water resources and assess climatic change. Based on the "3S" technology, the DEM, soil, vegetable and other parameter information are fetched. Then coupling the observation data and recent information, the DHSVM with two-layer energy balance snowmelt runoff model is established. Results indicate that the model can be used to simulate the snowmelt process of the Kaidu River Basin, and provide a certain amount of application support on the water resources assessment and management in arid region of our country.