Seismic Spatiotemporal Propagation Characteristics Based On Nonlinear Non-equilibrium Systems

There are a number of well-known seismic zone located in Southwest China which has a complex geological structure, making it to be one of the most significant earthquake activity areas of China. Thus, it is of great importance to investigate the seismic activity characteristics of this region. This paper takes southwest China as study areas, which include 112, 666 earthquakes with a Richter magnitude scale higher than 3 during the period between 1900 and 2013. Nonlinear science R/S fractal, wavelet analysis, gray prediction and geostatistics methods are employed in this paper to study the earthquake activity characteristics such as R/S fractal characteristics, period characteristics, temporal-spatial migration characteristics, and analyze the laws of earthquake activity. This paper consists of the following three parts:First of all, a relationship curve with a slope of 0.85 between frequency and magnitude is obtained by adopting classic relation of magnitude to frequency, aftershock sequence formulas and Hurst exponent of long earthquake time series of seismology into Southwestern China and its adjacent region. In addition, data points in double logarithmic coordinates can be fitted very well no matter how the time window of year frequency static of earthquake is selected which indicates the earthquake time of the study area is self-similarity and scale invariance. Next, based on the 20-year time scale R/S analysis of the earthquakes with different magnitude, it clearly shows that earthquake activity in the study area exhibits a duality of random and certainty in time, which is also a long-range correlation. In the end, the R/S analysis of the earthquake frequency time series of the partitioned study area and the R/S analysis of 8 groups of earthquakes with a magnitude higher than 7 clear shows that the typical precursor abnormal exhibits a H value with a morphology of “down-low-rise”. And most earthquakes occur in the process when H value changes from low to high.Second, wavelet analysis is used to perform a Morlet wavelet analysis of the released energy series in the study area, the results indicate not only the main earthquake period of 64 years and 4 years, but also the weak activity period of 23 years and 16 years, within which its strength is time-varying and unstable. Based on the real part of wavelet coefficients with different period and gray prediction, the result shows the earthquake activity remains active during the next few years.Finally, the 8 main seismic zone of the study area that has been investigated from the perspective of geographic based on the z-value. geostatistical tools ArcGIS and seismic analysis tool ZMAP are used to study the temporal-spatial migration characteristics of earthquake. The result also shows that each seismic zone has a relative quiet period. The results shows each seismic zone has its own inactive quiet period. At the same time, by studying the seismic zone time variation of the partition areas, the results shows the earthquake frequency of fault zones with the same or relative tectonic settings coincide with each other roughly.This paper develops from a macro perspective to study the seismic fractal characteristics and period characteristics, and the change of seismic activity, migration characteristics of the Southwestern China and its adjacent region are also studied. The results indicate that seismic activity of Southwestern China may be in relatively active period.