Prediction Of The Ground Fissures Disaster In Big Xi ’an Area

Ground fissure is a kind of supergene regional geological hazard, with scale and frequency of the disaster increasing, it has became a big threat of the city construction and development in Big Xi ’an area. In this paper, based on the understanding of the geological environment background of the ground fissures development in Big Xi ’an region, through the existing data sorting, field investigation and statistical analysis, I study from the relationship between ground fissure activity and its development in the space environment to summarizes the distribution and development regularity of ground fissures, and analyses the causes, believe that ground fissure in Big Xi ’an region is that the structural fracture is given priority to, its activity mainly impacted by neotectonic movement and earthquake activity, ground subsidence, groundwater dynamic change and the human activities, etc. Make full use of own possessed basic data to determine the influence factors of the activity of the ground fissure disaster activity in prediction research, including structure, earthquake, groundwater, ground subsidence, ground geomorphic factors, artificial surface water factor, rainfall factor. Activity of ground fissure disasters under the influence of these factors is nonlinear, using nonlinear mapping function and adaptive learning ability of the BP(Back Propagation) neural network can achieve good prediction of disaster events. By geographic information system(GIS) I realize informatization, digitization and quantitative of the crack influence factors, and effectively establish a connection with the input and output of BP neural network prediction model. Combined with unique geological environment background of the development of ground fissures in Big Xi ’an region for quantitative analysis of various influence factors are reasonable and effective. On this basis, further establish ground fissure activity of coupling GIS and BP neural network prediction model. The model with the existing distribution of ground fissures in data validation, got very good effect, determine has high reliability and rationality, but also indirect proof of big xi ’an ground fissure formation is a theory structure to give priority to combined action of many factors. So in this paper, the research of the big xi ’an ground fissure prediction model will provide a scientific basis for regional geological hazards risk zoning of the ground fissures and the work of the government disaster prevention and mitigation,which has the important practical significance.