Landslide Risk Assessment Model Based On Space-time Probability Analysis

As one of the main geologic hazards in the world, landslide not only threatens human’s lives but also damages environment, resource and property seriously. Landslide and secondary disaster have caused thousands of people dying and billions of dollars’ economic loss every year world-widely. The purpose of research for landslide hazard is to reduce the economic loss and death of people respectively. Therefore, facing the serious landslide hazard, it is important to research and apply disaster risk assessment of single landslide to assess the affect caused by landslide hazard.Summarizing the domestic and foreign related research results obtained, risk assessment of landslide can be divided into three capitals:1. Analysis of landslide risk. 2. Value analysis in landslide risk.3. Analysis of vulnerability of hazard-bearing body. According to the different mechanism of landslide in different scale, the establishment of the landslide hazard degree model; degree and angle to the internal personnel intensive evaluation method based on use of the buildings (structures), the establishment of landslide risk value analysis model; when the landslide occurred in accordance with their resistance to natural disasters, would bear the disaster vulnerability is divided into four grades, establishing bearing disaster vulnerability model.The report focuses on analysis of space-time probability during landslide. Two assumptions are proposed about the landslide time probability and time probability is calculated by assessing the record of landslide for the target area. Based on the practical condition of the target area, by establishing indoor slope, conducting stimulating experiment and analyzing experimental results, the range of landslide for target area can be predicted respectively. Meanwhile, by combining time probability function and indoor stimulating experiment, space-time probability function for landslide can be concluded as well.The assessment model of single landslide risk discussed in the paper transfers the assessment contents to relevant factors and the model is made of four different factors, namely are analysis of landslide risk, analysis of loss in landslide, analysis of vulnerability of hazard-bearing body and analysis of space-time probability during landslide. And also, each factor can be divided into different levels. When landslide risk of target area is assessed, levels of factor are analyzed and quantized to decide the quantity of factors so that the risk of target area can be estimated by quantitative method. After quantitative value of risk in target area is acquired, the risk level of single landslide hazard can be decided as well. The results of assessment can be used as a database for local organizations to formulate measures to avoid hazard or other activities during the daily life.Eventually,a case study illustrates the practicality and validity of this model.