Study On Risk Assessment Of Single Landslide In The Bailong River Basin

In China, the geological environment is very complex, the climate characteristics are diverse, and the frequency earthquake and rainfall greatly induced the activity frequency of landslides and other geological disasters. Then geological disasters turn intensified the destruction of geological environment and their interaction intensified,seriously restricting the roads, bridges and railway’ onstruction of large scale project,which is not conducive to the all-round development of economy and society. In order to minimize the damage intensity caused by the landslide disaster, systematically and deeply carrying out the specific single landslide risk assessment with both important scientific significance and practical significance.This study selects the representative landslide in Bailong River Basin as the research object and aims to build the system of single landslide risk assessment,then combined with examples to analyze the feasibility and applicability of single landslide risk assessment method.The main results of the article are as follows:(1)Based on the study for the basic theory of single landslide risk assessment, the basic concepts and characteristics of risk assessment were illustrated, and combined with the core content of the risk assessment to build a complete evaluation system architecture, analysis the single landslide lose steady probability by using reliability theory and Monte Carlo simulation method, and then, risk assessment of the probability of failure by landslide would be development.(2)Based on the geological data of the slope landslide in Zhouqu,The displacement and stress distribution of the landslide deformation stage are obtained by using FLAC numerical simulation, The scraping effect was discussed and Influence of different rheological models on simulation results was discussed by using DAN-W numerical simulation, we might suggested that the landslide accumulation body shape is similar under the different depth of scraping, the thickness of accumulation is thickened with the deepening of the scraping depth, and the best rheological parameters of different models were obtained by iteration method.(3)Based on field survey and indoor test then using the method of transfercoefficient to do stability analysis of the Xieliupo landslide. Based on the Monte Carlo method for landslide instability probability under different working conditions were calculated, then using conditional probability to analyze the annual probability which under different incentive. Then combining the survey statistics of landslide hazard-affected bodies to do vulnerability analysis.The risk of potential economic loss and death about Xieliupo landslide is evaluated and quantitative expression about the potential threat of the landslide suffered.The results show that Xieliupo landslide has middle risk under the condition of the earthquake and heavy rain, it has high risk under the condition of heavy rain(≥50mm) or earthquake. The maximum property risk is 347500 yuan per year, the maximum people risk is 0.03 person per year. The population risk over the tentative society allowed standard on the international and relevant method like monitoring observation and project management must be carried on for risk management.