Research On The Stability Of Loess Landslide Based On Monte Carlo Method

In the process of study and management of the loess landslides, the stability evaluation of landslide is one of the key problems in the landslide control. Traditional method of the stability evaluation of landslide is based on stability coefficient as evaluation index of landslide stability. Because of the simplification of calculation models and the restriction of assumptions, its does not take into account the randomness and variability of parameters in the process of calculation. The stability coefficient cannot objectively reflect the reality safety degree of the landslide.Based on this, this paper studies the application of Monte Carlo method in the stability evaluation of the loess landslide. According to the basic idea of Monte Carlo method, the computer program was compiled on the stability of landslide. Taking one loess landslide, which located in Tongwei, Gansu province, as an example, we analysis the basic characteristics of the landslide. And we take the physical and mechanical experiments of the sliding surface soil in order to get the calculation parameters. Then use the Monte Carlo method for calculating the stability of the loess landslide. And compare with the transfer coefficient method, the results of stability evaluation of the loess landslide is obtained. The main research contents are summarized as follows:(1) The application of Monte Carlo method in the stability analysis of landslide is introduced. It includes the basic principles, the types of probability distribution, the generation of random numbers and the size of sample purpose. According to the basic idea of Monte Carlo method, the computer program was compiled on the stability of landslide used VC++program design language.(2) Taking one loess landslide, which located in Tongwei, Gansu province, as an example, we analysis the basic characteristics of the landslide. And carry on the qualitative evaluation to the stability of the loess landslide. We take the physical and mechanical experiments of the sliding surface soil in order to get the calculation parameters. Research the physical and mechanical properties of the sliding surface soil.(3) Based on the computer program, use the Monte Carlo method for calculating the stability of the loess landslide. We get the instability probability and reliability index of the loess landslide. And compare with the transfer coefficient method, the results of stability evaluation of the loess landslide is obtained. The reference would be provided for the prevention of congener loess landslide and the application of Monte Carlo method in the stability evaluation of loess landslide.