Study On Forecasting Of Mine Gas Emission Based On The Monte Carlo Method Improved Neural Net

Coal gas emission is a very complicated dynamic phenomenon and the result ofcomprehensive action of multiple factors. In view of the fact that coal mine gas emission isincreasing, make a accurate gas emission prediction in the coal mining stope process will haveimportant significance for gas prevention and for guiding the coal mine safety production.Thepaper using Monte Carlo method and BP neural network as the main theory and the gasemission prediction method of coal mining face as the research content, then the papersystematically discussed a new prediction method. Finally the paper established Monte Carlomethod improved BP neural network model and the model realized the prediction of theproduction coal mine working face gas emission. The main research contents in dissertationare presented as follows:The actualities and limitations of current studying have been Summarized in thedissertation. Based on actually happened of Dashuitou Coal, the dissertation analyzes themain factors affecting of gas stope and using BP neural network by approximating thefunction of mine gas emission and the influencing factors to realize the gas emission. Thetraining process achieved the optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer and the besttraining function choice and formation the dynamic prediction of gas emission.The dissertation chosen Monte Carlo method to improved BP neural network after BPneural network is trained.By using the prediction function of Monte Carlo method to analysisthe original data of all kinds of affecting factors, statistics its development trend,then gain thedevelopment values of each factors as the input layer nodes original value of trained BPneural network model to predict.The paper chosen the East113stoping of Dashuitou Coal Mine to make predictionaccuracy test.By contrast the actual production found of coal mine, the Monte Carlo method improved BP neural network model have a high accuracy for the gas emission prediction,which has certain guiding significance for preventing gas in coal mine enterprises.