Research And Application Of FTA Model Based On Similarity Evidence Theory

Fault tree analysis is a method widely used in the field of safety assessment.However, how to assess the probabilities of the basic events’ range is a difficulty inquantitative analysis. The development of fault tree analysis is restricted by this methodbecause that traditional fault tree analysis method over-reliance on statistics.In order to integrate multiple experts’ opinions effectively, a fault tree analysismodel based on the similarity is presented in this paper. First, the concept of similarityused to fuse data is introduced to analyze the similarity among multiple experts’opinions, and to assign each expert’s opinions credibility weights based on the analysisresults. Then, experts’ opinions is synthesized by evidence theory, the probability ofaccident is predicted, and the importance degrees of basic events which may lead to topevent occur is judged. Finally, a quantitative FTA model for the gas explosion isestablished to compute the probability of top event and identify the most dangerous pathwhich may lead to the accident, the results of analysis provide references to themanagers when they develop validity measures.A summary has been made at the end of this article and priority has been putforward for the future research direction. The space where could be improved in faulttree has been pointed out, and the necessity of evidence theory in-depth study has beenproposed as well. Finally, the research prospects in combination of FTA and evidencetheory has been proposed.