Research On Decision Method Of Environment BOT Projects Based On Fuzzy Real Option

With the change of development concept, the state attaches great importance to environmental protection and focuses on the development of energy-saving environmental protection industry. BOT, as an effective financing model to relieve the pressure on investment fund shortage in the field of environmental protection, wins more and more favor and attention from government departments and the project company. Environmental BOT projects has the characteristics of stage, Long cycle and big risks, The traditional investment decision method neglects the value of flexibility which exists in the decision process of environmental BOT project. Based on this background, this paper made the following studies:The article summed up the previous studies achievement, analyzed the main features of environmental BOT projects and identified the various types of environmental risks existed in BOT projects. Based on the introduction of the relevant theory of fuzzy mathematics and real options theory, the limitation of traditional decision-making methods when it was used in the field of environmental protection BOT was analyzed. What’s more, the options and blur characteristic of BOT projects was probed.Then, the paper established the fuzzy real option decision model of BOT project of environmental protection decision model by analyzing the real options value of environmental BOT projects and applying the fuzzy real option theory comprehensively, which extend the application of real options. Based on this, The model under the situation of European options and American options was discussed respectively. Even the concession period decision and parameter problem was studied.Finally, the paper integrated use decision method of environment BOT projects based on fuzzy real option research and analysis the CS municipal solid waste disposal field leachate treatment project. By comparing with the results of Monte Carlo simulation and the results of traditional decision-making method and ordinary real option decision-making method, we have come to the conclusion that the fuzzy real option method is more scientific and rational than the traditional decision-making method and the general one. Through the sensitivity analysis of data, the influence of the model parameters was further discussed. There are25graphics,5charts and82references in this paper.