Research On Fuzzy Real Option Investment Decision Of High Tech Project

With the development of economy and the increasing degree of opening up to the outside world,the high-tech projects of enterprises are more and more affected by macro environment,industry competition and other factors,and the uncertainty also increases.Therefore,it has become a key problem for high-tech enterprises to study and evaluate the growth potential and investment value of high-tech investment projects by scientific and reasonable methods.Traditional investment decision-making methods(such as NPV)have great limitations.On the one hand,it thinks that managers can only passively make strategic decisions,but ignore the subjective initiative of managers;On the other hand,it assumes that the future income of the investment project will follow the expectation,without considering the uncertainty in the process of the project development.The real option method fully considers the decision flexibility and the opportunity of future growth of the project in the process of project development.It is believed that uncertainty increases the option value of the project,and effectively avoids the defects that traditional decision-making methods can easily underestimate the long-term strategic value of the project.But the rigid and absolute value of real option makes the calculation of project value deviate easily.Therefore,the fuzzy real option method emerges.Based on the fuzzy mathematics,the fuzzy real option model is derived by combining the real option model.The model variables are modified by fuzzy processing.In this way,the uncertainty can be quantified and the influence of the rigidity of parameter value on project decision-making is reduced.This paper first gives a brief introduction to the theory of real option,and introduces the concept of trapezoid fuzzy number and its mean value and variance calculation.Then,by comparing the traditional investment decision-making method and the real option pricing method,it highlights the scientific and advanced nature of the real option model in the high-tech project investment decision analysis,and selects the real option model to evaluate the high-tech project.Aiming at the multi-stage and management flexibility of high-tech projects,this paper uses the binary tree model which can exercise the right in advance to price the growth option contained in the project,and fuzzy trapezoidal processing is carried out for the model parameters,which can fully reflect the uncertainty of the value of variable data and effectively avoid the result deviation caused by the too rigid parameter value.Finally,a phase fuzzy real option model which is highly suitable for the characteristics of high-tech projects is constructed,and the case of solar cell back membrane project of company a is used to verify.Through theoretical research and case study,it is proved that the fuzzy real option method has the advantages in the practical application of high-tech project investment decision,and can reflect the real value of the project more accurately,so as to guide the investors to make decisions reasonably.