A Study On Alert System Of Geological Environment Security Based On Delphi Method And GIS In Tianjin Harbor Economic Zone

Geological environment friendly is the foundation of the construction ofecological civilization. As one of the most important functional zone of Binhai NewArea of Tianjin, the geological environment security of Tianjin Port Economic Zoneis essential. This thesis, with geological environment of Tianjin Port Economic Zoneas the study object, firstly analyzes and establishes forecasting and alarming modelfor geological environment security and proves this alert system can be realized byinformation technology. The results of this thesis has great practical value andapplication prospect in guiding and optimizing development strategy of port economicarea, drawing up measures for natural disasters prevention and reduction, reasonablylaying out production and construction and building natural disaster preventing andreducing system.Based on the actual geological environment condition within the study zone andmassive analysis, it is found that the main environmental problems affectinggeological environment security are corrosivity of shallow ground water, seismicsubsidence of weak soil (mucky soil), liquidation of saturated sand (silt), groundsubsidence and slope stability. In consideration of Geological environmentalconditions, the operability and simplicity of the model, current data and applicationmaturity, the Delphi method evaluation model is used as the mathematical model forevaluating forecasting and alarming system of geological environment safety in porteconomic area. According to geological conditions of Harbor Economic Zone,evaluation model is consist of safety impact factor and safety stress factor, and eachimpact factor has three hierarchies, including type, factor and condition. We build4type-hierarchies,10factor-hierarchies and40condition-hierarchies according to theactual situation, and the index value of each hierarchy factor is determined by expert’scomprehensive score.The composition of forecasting and alarming system and the key developingtechnologies are depicted firstly, according to which the research and development ofthe system are realized. The function module of the alert system is consisted of building module, forecasting model, map property searching and browsing module,spatial database management module and results displaying module for safetyforecasting and alarming. By using UML to design related types, the research anddevelopment of geological environmental security forecasting and alarming system inPort Economic Zone is realized mainly by using GIS technology and coupled OOPthinking, UML modeling language,.Net technology, serial communication, databasetechnology and other technologies and based on Net2012combined with VC++6.0mixed programming.After the establishment of the model system, the forecasting and alarming systemis put into application in research zone by research group. The spatial databaseconsisted of11layer including crust stability partition map is set up and so does landsubsidence monitoring database. The forecasting and alarming model is instantiatedand based on actual data, the alert evaluation and classification of geologicalenvironment security is realized. The geological security of research zone is dividedinto safe, relatively safe and unsafe. On the spatial distribution, the Northeast andSouthwest regions, being65%of the whole area, are relatively unsafe, which hasgreat relationship to the order of the sea reclamation. The earlier the sea reclamationis done, the better the soil consolidation, and the lower the rate of land subsidence.Therefore, the earlier district owns better geological security and vice versa. Alertproducts are also produced to achieve the alert information release via SMS.If the model of this thesis can be used to forecast and alarm the geologicalenvironment security in research area, it could help us to prevent and avoid naturaldisaster in economic zone in advance, and it also could provide auxiliarydecision-making information for government department to adjust industrial layout.This is also the economic benefit and social benefit of this thesis.