Research On Fushun Water Environment Based On System Dynamics Model

Although the water quality of Liaohe basin has improved with the"10th five-year plan" and the "1lth five-year plan" period of governance, most of the main rivers for COD basically eliminated the bad kind V at the end of2010, but there are still parts of river about ammonia nitrogen indexes more than V water standard. In the face of economic pressure, the basin water environmental system is facing serious challenge. such as water resources shortage and water pollution.Fushun city is a typical heavy industry with the large of energy consumption and serious pollution. It consumed a large amounts of energy, discharged waste gas, waste water and solid wastes in the process of product production, and the air environment, water environment caused different levels of pollution at the same time. Due to the traditional economic growth mode, it made the contradiction increasingly prominent between fushun economic society and resources environment.The water resources of Fushun city is rich from the point of view on the total, but with the further increasing of industrial water,agricultural water and sewage discharge, makes the ecological function of river water drop. This article mastered data of Hunhe and its tributaries, collected the fushun city natural condition, social development and the wastewater discharge, using the system dynamics model Vensim PLE6.0, simulated the system change of fushun water environment, revealed internal response mechanism of water resources under the influence of population, economic, industrial and agricultural development and pollution emissions. With determining boundary, dividing subsystem, estimating parameters, checking model consistency, it simulated based on2006years. through the consistency checking, it divided the important parameters within the range,get the four different situation scheme, which is the plan0in accordance with the status, the plan1for the economic development, the plan2for environmental protection, the plan3of coordinated development between economy development and environment protection.The simulation results show that the four plans by2025, according to the plan0development, the population and GDP are obtained fast development, they were6.1726million people and1.291016trillion yuan respectively, COD and ammonia nitrogen emissions dramatically reached124558.85tons and9966.04tons, this is not our hope. Plan1increased proportion of industrial investment, made full use of the advantage of fushun industrial base, relative to the simulation results of plan0, the population and GDP were high slightly, at the same time, COD and ammonia nitrogen emissions became more and more, water environment deterioration trend was more obvious. plan2limited the further development of economy, the population and GDP growth was slow, the space of the sewage treatment capacity was increased, relative to the plan0and plan l,the population and GDP growth, ammonia nitrogen and COD emissions were the ideal scope. For plan3, it was a sustainable development mode, the population was6.29million, GDP was1.4635trillion yuan, COD and ammonia nitrogen emissions was falling. That is to say, we should adjust industrial structure, conserve resources, increase investment proportion of environmental protection, increase the intensity of sewage treatment,that is reasonable development mode.