The Improvement Repeat Purchase Model Of New Products Diffusion

BASS, founded in 1969, is the classic model of technology diffusion, a simple form of the model is used in predicting many new products and achieved good results. With the further extensive application used, there are many limitations was found about the Bass model, only limited types of products are suited to its assumptions for research, so people start from different perspective to relax the model assumptions, try to make more products used to.One of the Bass model's assumptions is customer would buy new product only once, that repeat purchase product will not be considered. This condition only applies to forecasting durable sales, would not make good application in non-durable products. Nowadays, non-durable goods is relatively high proportion in the market share.Non-durable goods companies fully analyze the diffusion of products in the fierce market competition for the future, seize more market share and achieve customers repeat purchase product, become development priority.The paper through researching the characteristics of non-durable products, taking account into repeat purchase behavior, summarized and analyzed existing repeat purchase technology diffusion model,and used econometric methods derived from theoretical and empirical perspective kown the merits and weaknesses of existing models, and on this basis to improve on existing models,proposed life cycle logit model, and use the data to the test the model, and take the Churning company for examples to analysis application of the model.The main conclusions of the paper as follows:1. On the basis anlysis of the existing repeat purchase models found that, through theory anlysis, the structure of life cycle model considering the life of the product is simple and easy to operate and improve; through the empirical comparison, the added forms of marketing mix variables in the logit model has better fitting results.2. Obtained by econometric methods, the modified logit model life-cycle theory is not only more perfect in the theory, but also has better fitting effect than two representative model of the repeat purchase diffusion model.3. Through using life cycle logit model in the Churning company product case study, found that model can apply to product research well, and products of this company stay in the mature stage, the marketing strategy at this stage is insufficient need to make more appropriate strategy to adjust the characteristics of the period.