Generation Investment Threshold Model And Its Analysis In Electric Power Market

In recent years, as the power industry market-oriented reforming deepen and the establishment of the power bidding mechanism, a single power pricing pattern by government was replaced by the dual regulation system of power pricing pattern, lots of power generators with different property right attributes entered into field of power generation, at the same time, the power regulatory agencies have increased the power price's regulation and supervision, furthermore, power bidding price is usually set ceiling price, "price ceiling" issue has become one of central issues which power generators need to consider. For power generators with different property right attributes, power price ceiling determines the amount of their earnings in a certain extent, the stability of power investment market is the major issue which matters the urbanization and industrialization steadily and rapidly development to whole society. With the constraint of property right attribute and electric power price difference contract and power price cap mechanism, study the optimal investment timing issue of power generators has important theoretical and practical significance.The paper based on real option thinking, mainly done the following researches: on the basis of considering power bidding of power generator and secondary cost function, we established a power generation investment threshold model in a competitive market; Furthermore, leaded into the utility function of power generator, a power generation investment threshold model with the constraint of power generator's property right attribute was established; Considered the differences of electric power price fixed by government and market, we established a power generation investment threshold mode with the constraints of power price's different contracts; Then, a power generation investment threshold model considered property right attribute of power generator and electric power price difference contract was established; All above threshold results were simulated and analyzed or marginal analyzed. Furthermore, leaded into power price cap mechanism, we set up a power generation investment threshold model with the constraint of power price cap and property right attribute of power generator, then, threshold results of the models were simulated and analyzed.The analysis showed that: 1) In a competitive market environment, the optimal investment threshold of power generator and the factor of property right attribute have a positive correlation, investment enthusiasm of state-owned power generator is higher than private power generator; 2) Considering electric power price difference contract, if the bidding proportion of power generation company's total electric is less, then, the optimal investment threshold of power generator and its have a negative relationship, on the contrary, the positive relationship between them; 3) The optimal investment threshold of power generator and the power price cap have a positive correlation, and with the constraint of power price cap, the optimal investment threshold of power generator has convergence trending, and is closing to the power price cap numerically in the long run.