Centralized Long-term Rental Apartment Based On Real Options Investment Decision Research

The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that "the house does not live without speculation".At the same time,it implements a policy of renting and selling in the real estate market in China,encouraging more people to rely on renting houses to solve housing needs.With the introduction of a series of incentive policies,centralized long-rent apartments have developed rapidly as a new form of housing leasing.However,investment in centralized long-term rental apartments has more uncertainties and high risks.How to make investment decisions for centralized long-term rental apartment projects,avoid risks,and create revenue for development enterprises,which is a problem faced by development enterprises.In view of this,this paper combines the characteristics of centralized long-term apartment investment,using real option method to make investment decision research.The main research contents are as follows:First of all,the article summarizes the traditional investment decision-making method theory and points out its limitations,which is not applicable to the centralized long-term apartment investment field.Then introduce the theory of real option method,and introduce its advantages.Secondly,the article defines the concept of centralized long-term rental apartment,and introduces its characteristic attributes,operation mode and profit model.On this basis,it summarizes the characteristics of high-risk,uncertainty and irreversibility of investment-oriented long-rent apartments and the flexibility of management of decision makers in development enterprises,and then demonstrates that real option methods invest in centralized long-term rental apartments.The applicability of the field.Then,based on the characteristics of centralized long-term apartment investment,the article uses the partial differential method to construct the optimal investment timing decision model of the centralized long-rent apartment project,and determines the optimal investment threshold to provide the decision-makers of the development enterprise to enter the market.The best chance.At the same time,the article uses the single factor analysis method to analyze the important parameters of the construction model to explore the impact on the option value and the optimal investment threshold of the centralized long-rent apartment project,and avoid underestimating the investment of centralized long-term apartment.The value of the project makes up forthe shortcomings of the traditional investment decision-making methods and creates revenue for the development enterprise.Finally,the applicability of the build model is verified by the case application.This paper simulates the changes in the value of centralized long-rent apartment options and the decisions that development companies should make by varying the values of risk-free interest rates,continuous payment of red interest rates,and volatility in nine different market situations.Then,the article will use the traditional investment decision method and the real option method to compare the results of the case analysis,further verifying the applicability and scientificity of the real option method,which will provide scientific development for the development of concentrated long-rent apartments.The guidance of investment decision theory has important practical significance.