The Study Of Employment Structure Effects Of Monetary Policy In China

At present, undergoing the impact on international finance crisis, the problems in China that the development way is rough and the economic structure is unreasonable have become more obvious. So, accelerating structure adjustment and transforming developing way are very urgent. The issue of Chinese macro-economic policy has been whether total quantity expands no longer. Because the structure problem has been in China for a long time, expanding the total quantity has been in a dilemma. Studying structural adjustment function of the Chinese monetary policy becomes the main trend to the macroeconomic regulation and control. The structure of employment which is not only the reflection of economic behaviors of micro-individual in the macro economic, but also joins the social structure and the economic structure, influences the economical movement and the social development profoundly. So, studying the employment structure effect on monetary policy has great realistic significance.This paper studies the employment structure effect on monetary policy through several methods, such as comparative analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The implementation history of Chinese monetary policy and the evolution and current situation of employment structure have been described by using large amount of data. Through review of fundamental research and derivation of theory function, as well as China's realistic data, the existence and the conduction mechanism of employment structure effect on the monetary policy are showed not only in theory also in reality. Panel model is built by using the data in three industries of 1999-2008. Mainly through unit root and co-integration test, the long-term balanced relation between monetary policy and structure of employment was proved. Then the existence and the conduction mechanism of employment structure effect on the monetary policy were proved by the fixed effect model of variable coefficient as well as the Seemingly Unrelated Regression method.This paper discovers that industrial structure and the employment structure in China both have been in unbalance and at preliminary for a long time. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, the fact was found that tool-interest rate of the unified monetary policy affecting investment generates effect to the structure of employment, and investment is the transmission channel of industrial employment structure effect on the monetary policy. On the one hand, the investment which can influence industrial structure generates effect to the structure of employment. On the other hand, the investment which will promote technological progress produces the substitution effect to the employment structure. So, that was considered the employment structure effect on monetary policy is existent. The demonstration result indicates the monetary policy has the function of adjusting the structure of employment and the adjusting function is effective, although the effectiveness is not high. According to that the low adjusting effectiveness of unified monetary policy to employment structure is the main reason of imbalance in employment structure, speeding up the implementation of structural monetary policy and related policy recommendations have been proposed.