| Ever after the reform and opening-up, a modern Monetary Policy was formed and under development in China literally, when the People's Bank of China (PBC) began to play the role as a central bank of this country. For 3 decades, accompany with the progress of the socialist market economy, the Chinese Monetary Policy had been taking its step forward by implementing its macro-control functions and resulted in a certain acceleration of the development of the economy in China. In the end of 1990s, in order to deal with the Asia financial crisis and the serious situation of the domestic deflation, the central bank decided to carry out a moderate and steady Monetary Policy. In the year of 2003, however, the PBC paid more attention to the currency liquidity and gave the market a signal of tight money. By the end of 2007, a definite tight Monetary Policy was confirmed by the conference of the central economy so as to reduce the pressure of inflation and therefore restrain the trend of an overheated-economy. In 2008, with the expansion of subprime crisis, the Monetary Policy began to adjust its means of affecting the market by less open-market operations and more and frequent reduction of the interest rate and deposit reserve rate.Since the 1980s, the imbalance among different industries had become a marked feature of the Chinese economy development, while the over speeded expansion or decline of some industries compared with the others would lead to a total imbalance in economy, especially when the monetary credit increased, the entire economy would become over-heated caused by local hot sparks. Many studies had been made on the industry-relative effect of the monetary policy recent years using the demonstration analysis of the data out of different countries or different industries and as a result had proved the existence of such an effect.However, the argumentation of whether the industry-relative effect of the monetary policy, in China, behaved equally in different industries during different economic periods or not, namely the existence of the asymmetry of the effect in China, still stayed un-discussed. Some economists had questioned the perfect equality of the Monetary Policy since the Great Depression and many researches after that, which were mostly based on the demonstration analysis of the means of the Monetary Policy and its total output, had showed that a tight monetary policy was able to ease the over-heated economy effectively, but an expanded and encouraging one could do nothing about the trend of an economy decline. While in this paper, the effects of different monetary policies, in China, were discussed from the views of different industries, that is to look into the industrial effects of the Monetary Policy on different industries at the same economic period and the same industry during different economic periods by demonstrated analyzing the relationship between the output of an industry and the means of the Monetary Policy.The demonstration in this paper was divided into two sections. One was to build up a panel-data model based on the effect of different towards different industries, using Eviews6.0. The other was to apply Markov Regime Switching model to analyze the asymmetry of the industrial effect value and the currency supply increasing rate using the outcome of the panel-data model. The innovation part of this discussion was that we gained a timeline sequence of the effect values by means of altering the sample length of the panel-data model and reached a primary conclusion of the industry-related effect of different monetary policies during different economic periods, which were:1. There was an obvious industrial effect of the Monetary Policy and most industries reacted positively to it. The majority received a gentle affection from the Monetary Policy except for a few industries that over-reacted to the policy at every turn.2. The intensity of the responses varied in different industries on a directional level during different economic periods. Meanwhile, a tight money policy had a relatively large effect on the industries of the metal and special equipment manufacturing, which was discussed thoroughly in this paper.To sum up, the inequality of the industry effect of the Monetary Policy did exist. Therefore, it was suggested that the difference of industries be considered thoroughly when adjusting the monetary policy. Also, in different economic periods, the means of the Monetary Policy should be regulated according to the response direction of the industry-related effect so as to keep the validity of the Monetary Policy and lead the Chinese economy development to its total balance and prosperity. |
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