Quantitative Study On The Factors Of Shanghai Services Exports

Trade in Services is the most dynamic and potential areas of economic growth nowadays. It is considered as an important way to stimulate economic growth. China has always regarded the exports as one of the troika to stimulate economic growth. While the surplus in goods trade has been growing rapidly, the deficit in services trade has lasted for many years and it is advancing year after year. In order to reverse this situation and let the services trade contribute to economic growth, we need to find out the factors influencing the services exports. Shanghai is one of the best cities in developing services trade in China, but also a city of deficit in services trade. This article selects Shanghai as the research focus in the hope of finding out the significant factors that affect Shanghai services exports.Firstly, from the point of view of linear regression, this paper establishes a least squares regression model to study the factors of Shanghai services exports, but due to multicollinearity and little samples, model results are unsatisfactory. To overcome these problems, this paper establishes partial least squares regression model for the study. Secondly, from the point of view of nonlinear regression, this article uses the gray correlation analysis method to make a further analysis on the factors for Shanghai services exports. Thirdly, from the point of view of services trade's structure, this paper makes the study on the sub-sectors in Shanghai services exports with the gray correlation analysis method and proposes the key sub-sectors in developing Shanghai services exports. Then this paper sets up canonical correlation analysis to study the factors for these key sub-sectors. Finally, according to results of the quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward some recommendations to promote the development of Shanghai services exports.