The Characteristics Of Apple Consumption In China

With increasing of income levels and growth of apple demand, apple industry has become a vital brace in domestic and foreign markets, and apple has also become an one of necessities of individuals daily life. Generally speaking, China's apple consumption market has been gradually made the transition from an immature supply-and-demand structure based on a single farmer's market to a mature market which is a multi-level, multi-type, multi-functional supply-and-demand structure, but per capita apple consumption of rural and urban residents is still relatively low. On the other hand, apple's production cycle is very long, fixed investment of apple production is very large, and local government always intervene in apple production and supply in order to increase farmers income, and apple is more typical agricultural products of high-value, all this factors lead to cyclical market fluctuations and supply-and-demand structural contradictions of apple industry. To solve these problems, theorists has made much more investigations and researches, and obtained some valuable results, but the research based on consumption characteristics and law of supply-and-demand is very meager. Therefore, based on the view of apple product attributes, law of apple supply and demand, and consumption characteristics, this paper research on elastic characteristics of apple demand and equilibrium model of apple supply-and-demand using elasticity theory and cobweb model, and based on this, the paper strive to forecast the development trend of China's apple demand and balance situation between apple supply and demand. Specifically, based on the early studies and taking into consideration market environment of apple consumption against new situation, studies on China's apple consumption in this paper focus on three aspects: (1) Characteristics of apple consumption in China recently; (2) Elasticity characteristics of apple demand in China during 1978-2007; (3) The situation and characteristics of quantum balance of apple supply and demand in China during the year of 1978 to 2020.This dissertation consists of four parts, the main content of each part is as follows:Part 1 briefly introduces study protocol and theoretical basis, including chapter 1 and chapter 2 of this paper. It elaborates the research background, the purpose and significance, the main research contents, the research method and the framework, and related theories such as consumption theory, elasticity theory and cobweb model. Part 2 is about characteristics of apple consumption and demand elasticity, including chapter 3 and chapter 4. Firstly, the paper analyzes the history and current situation and characteristics of China's apple consumption since 1978 in the view of total, structure, level, breed structure, spatial and temporal differences and so on. Generally speaking, the main characteristic of China's apple consumption is that total consumption of apple is very large while per capita apple consumption is relatively small, and consumption and product structure of apple is imperfect, and so on. Secondly, the paper figures out own-price elasticity, cross price elasticity and income elasticity of apple demand based on elasticity formula. As for the own-price elasticity, coefficient of price elasticity is lower than 1, which indicates that apple consumption is very inelastic associated with own-price. In term of cross-price elasticity, coefficient of cross-price elasticity is also lower than 1, which implies that apple demand is inelastic associated with cross-price (pear price), while the demand elasticity of income is found to be more elastic than that of prices. Lastly, apple demand function is used to estimate elasticity of apple demand in China during the year of 1978 to 2007. Econometric analysis indicates that own-price elasticity, cross price elasticity and income elasticity of apple demand are -0.34, 0.33 and 0.75, respectively. It implies that apple demand is inelastic associated with income and price, but income elasticity is more elastic than price elasticity.Part 3 gives an equilibrium analysis of apple demand-and-supply during the period of 1978 to 2020, including chapter 5. From the perspective of cobweb model, by constructing and estimating simultaneous equation model of apple supply-and-demand in China, elasticity of apple supply is found to be more elastic than that of apple demand, revealing that China's apple demand-and-supply reviews convergent cobweb model, and situation of apple demand-and-supply will become balance eventually. In the view of regression prediction, the paper forecasts total apple demand will reach up to 40.59 million tons in 2020, while net supply of apple will reach up to 43.19 million tons in the year of 2020. Comparing apple demand with apple supply, the paper forecasts that the supply of apple exceeds demand in recent years, and situation of apple surplus in quantum will maintain in the short run, which may constraint revenue growth of apple growers and sustainable development of apple industry. But the situation of apple supply and demand will become balance in the long run. Therefore, policy instruments such as stimulate demand (including domestic demand and export demand) and reduce production, may help to increase apple intake and accelerate the balance of apple supple-and-demand in China.Part 4 is a briefly summary, including chapter 6. A research conclusion is drawn from the results of theoretical and empirical study, and some rational policy implications are put forward from the perspective of increase apple intake, perfect apple consumption market and accelerate the balance of apple demand-and-supply.The study shows that the elasticity of apple demand has become stable gradually as time goes on, which indicates that China's apple consumption market tends to mature. Income elasticity is more elastic than price elasticity, implies that increasing income levels is the most effective measurement to stimulate apple demand. The price elasticity of apple demand is inelastic, indicates that apple sales prices should be increased appropriately. Equilibrium analysis imply that the situation of apple surplus in quantum will maintain in the short run, but the quantum of apple supply and demand will become balance in the long run.