Research On The Elasticity Of Demand For Housing Leasing Consumption Of Floating Population In Shanghai

The housing consumption demand of urban floating population is an important topic for the sustainable and healthy development of urban real estate market.In recent years,with the continuous improvement of urban economic development and the urbanization level,the proportion of urban floating population keeps expanding.As an international metropolis integrating the Yangtze River Delta and leading to the future,Shanghai's floating population has always been high.Housing is the first stop for the floating population to enter the city,but limited by funds,house prices and regulatory factors represented by restricted purchases and loans,rental housing has become the first choice of these people.The research on the characteristics of the increasing consumption demand of the floating population in the housing rental market,is not only conducive to scientifically and rationally solving the current housing problem of the floating population,but also conducive to integrating the housing demand of the floating population into the long-term mechanism of the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate in the whole city,so as to provide more reasonable suggestions for the development of the urban housing rental market.Permanent income and price are the two most important factors that influence the demand of housing consumption.The permanent income elasticity of housing consumption demand can measure the development stage of the housing rental market,and price elasticity can measure the efficiency of housing subsidies and the price sensitivity of consumers in the market,so as to provide guidance for the good development of the housing rental market.At present,some scholars have studied the housing demand elasticity,but most of them use macro data,and are unable to consider the buying and renting families separately,therefore,the Heckman two-stage model is seldom used.The few studies that use micro data mostly focus on self owned housing families,but lack attention to the rental market and even less research on the floating population.Therefore,in this paper,it uses the micro data of Shanghai sample from dynamic monitoring data of floating population in 2017 by National Health and Family Planning Commission.After deriving the predicted value of permanent income through the family characteristics regression method,it selects the Heckman two-stage model under the maximum likelihood estimation method,and makes a regression analysis on the demand elasticity of floating population families in the housing rental market with the family's permanent income and the price of housing services as explanatory variables.In this paper,it establishes the binary Probit model of rent or buy choice to find the Inverse Mills Ratios(IMRs)that correct the selection bias.Then,it infuses the IMRs into the equation of housing consumption demand,so as to estimate the permanent income and price elasticity of the demand of floating population families.Then,subsamples are used to measure the housing demand elasticity of the permanent income and price of different types of floating population families.Among the control variables,in addition to demographic characteristics and housing stability,this paper innovatively considers the influence of institutional factors on housing consumption demand,which makes the analysis of this paper more realistic.Through empirical research,the conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1.The permanent income elasticity of self owned housing families in floating population families in Shanghai is greater than 1(1.187),which has certain investment motivation;2.The permanent income and price elasticity of housing consumption demand of rental families in floating population in Shanghai are 0.837 and 0.748 respectively,and the absolute values are both smaller than 1,which belong to the category of inflexibility,showing that renting is a necessity of life,and the demand is not sensitive to the price change;3.Low-income families and middle-and low-income families in the floating population of rental housing have low elasticity of demand for sustainable income,which is only 0.107-0.623.Subsidies can be provided to families lacking the ability to consume housing(the total annual income per capita of the family is less than 24,000 yuan)and families with inadequate renting capacity(the total annual income of the family is less than 32,000 yuan)respectively according to the permanent income elasticity of demand.4.Three types of family demand in rental families have permanent income elasticity greater than 1: the families whose heads are between 30 and 44 years old,the families whose heads' educational level are college level,and families with middle income and above,and are the main driving force of demand growth of the housing rental market in Shanghai.Based on this,this paper proposes the following suggestions for the development of the housing rental market in Shanghai: On the one hand,housing security should be provided for the low-income families and middle-and low-income families of the floating population at different levels,so as to help them solve their housing difficulties.On the other hand,the development of the housing rental market should be encouraged by increasing supply,fostering specialized rental agencies,and providing diversified rental housing,so as to promote the increasing demand for housing consumption,at the same time,the dynamic rent monitoring mechanism should be established to closely monitor rent changes and guide and regulate them in time.