An Empirical Study On Effects Of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility On China's Exports To The United States

Exchange rate, as the ratio at which one currency can be converted into another currency, is an important factor which determines the competiveness of a country's products in the international market. As an important macroeconomic variable, exchange rate has a huge impact on international trade. The exchange rate can affect the international trade from two aspects,one is the level of exchange rate and the other is the volatility of exchange rate. Since from July 21,2005,China implemented a regulated, managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand which motivated the study of the impact of exchange rate volatility on China's exports.Considering the exchange rate volatility will have different effects on different export market, so this article select China's exports to the United States as samples from the angle of bilateral trade. This article mainly include the following aspects:In the first part, the author reviewed foreign literature from the factors which influence the relationship between exchange rate volatility and the exports and drawed a conclusion. The conclusion is that the research between exchange rate volatility and exports is a empirical research rather than a theoretical research.In the empirical part, the author introduce the general frame which concerns the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports. The specific content is the model in empirical research, the methods to measure the exchange rate volatility and the type of trade data.The author study the effects of RMB exchange rate volatility on China's exports to the United States. The empirical study in this paper can be divided into two parts. In the first part, we select monthly total export data from 2005 to 2009 as samples, to study the effects of RMB exchange rate volatility on China's total exports to the United States. The result shows that as to the effect of the real exchange rate volatility on the exports, the coefficient is negative which means exchange rate volatility will depress our exports. In order to make the study more effective, in the second part, we divide China's total exports to the United States into eight plants, to study the effects of RMB exchange rate volatility on different commodities'exports. The results show that as to most commodities, the coefficients are negative which means exchange rate volatility will depress our exports. The commodities which suffer from RMB exchange rate volatility is textiles and animal products. From the results, we can see that exchange rate volatility has different influence on different commodities. So in order to make the research more effective, select the product-specific data is necessary.Finally, according to the conclusions of empirical study, the author puts forward relevant suggestions from the macro and micro point.