The Empirical Research On How The Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility Affects The Import And Export Trade Of China

Trade balance is an important part of China's national economy accounting system, and can reflect the economic level of our country and our strength in the world of economic status, and reflects the economic growth in China and the speed of development. Then the RMB exchange rate changes can influence the balance of the trade in our country, and can affect China's foreign trade import and export commodity structure, so the RMB exchange rate is usually as an important means of adjusting the import and export trade. Basing on the above two view, this paper study the actual and effective exchange rate on China's import and export trade influence.The main research ideas is the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, and the combination of text is divided into the following several parts:In the first part of this paper, we study the meaning and the background of the domestic and foreign relevant literature review; Review the exchange rate on the import and export trade of influence mainstream theory, based on microeconomic foundation and set the static and dynamic theory model.In the second part, this paper introduces the concept of the currency in China and the reform of the RMB exchange rate, combined with the effective exchange rate US dollar analysis of our actual and effective exchange rate changes in the level of reason, and research of China's foreign trade commodity structure and regional structure. As a result we find that the trade market has diversified and the structure of the trade goods continuous optimization.In the third part, by using 1994-2010 monthly data for sample and building a GARCH model, the paper derived conditional variances as exchange rate fluctuations. Then tests granger causality reasons about the level changes of exchange rate,the uncertainty of exchange rate and the trade structure. Finally, based on using VAR model 1994-2010 annual data, the level of exchange rate are studied changes and uncertainty the impact of the fluctuation of China's imports and export commodity structure influence. The paper study the level changes of exchange rate and the uncertainty of exchange rate impact of the fluctuation of China's imports and export commodity structure influence. The Research indicates that RMB exchange rate appreciation, although import and export trade structure deterioration in the short term, but can optimize import and export trade structure in the long-term; The uncertainty of the exchange rate increases, worsen the structure of the export commodities, but can optimize the structure of the imported goods.In the fourth part, the paper establish a cointegration model to analysis the long-term equilibrium about exchange rate,the trade balance and the income. And in further, the paper use error correction model to research the dynamic relationship between them. The results showed that in a long-term equilibrium, the exchange rate appreciation can increase trade balance of payments, exchange rate fluctuations increase can increase trade balance; In the short term dynamic relations, exchange rate appreciation rate increase to balance of the trade growth rate increase, the growth rate of exchange rate fluctuations increase the balance of the trade growth rate increase had no significant influence.In the fifth part, in view of the conclusion of the empirical analysis, this paper puts forward the corresponding policies and suggestions.