Experimental Test On Marketing Decision-making Capacity Of Farmers

Under the background in sharp price fluctuations , whether farmers can effectively grasp sales opportunity sale out its grain by ideal price , finally realizes the family income increases, became the hot today.Test on decision-making ability of farmers contribute to increase farmer's income﹑understand the microeconomic foundation of food price forming﹑formulate marketization benefit farming policy. So, how our country farmers market decision-making ability,it is based on this, this paper will test on the market decision-making capacity of farmers.To this,based on experimental economics method for tools, relying on behavior finance decision theory, reference to the research ideas of investors'decision-making ability in securities market, used to research the peasant's decision-making ability of selling food by experiment. and proposed in this foundation put forward policy Suggestions of this paper. Specifically speaking, it includes the content as following:(1) In essence, the marketing decision-making behavior of farmers is the same with Stock market transactions which was make decisions under uncertainty acts. The behavioral finance is used in the research of Decision-making behavior of investors. So this article also uses the theory of behavioral finance to analyze the market Decision-making of FarmersFirst of all, introduced the basic connotation of behavioral finance theory and decision making: prospect theory, decision-making model; Secondly, the market decision-making capacity of farmers were judged and tested by theory of behavioral finance based on the performance of the farmers in the questionnaires and interviews to Conclude that: famers had overconfidence, mental accounting, loss aversion, anchoring effects, herd behavior, and many other non-rational behavior .during the sales decision. Finally, it pointed that as farmers'decision-making behavior is scattered and not continuous, it was very difficult to collect empirical data, so this paper uses the methods of experimental economics to test the market decision-making capacity of farmers learning the stock market of ideas.(2)The significance of experimental economics and the methods﹑conditions of experimental design was combed. Experimental economics'appellation in the surrounding markets of the application were summarized. By reference to the results of these studies in accordance with the basic principles of experimental design, Experimental test on the market decision-making capacity of farmers was designed.(3)Introduced the experimental points(experimental environment﹑experimental subject﹑ price information﹑ experimental time﹑ the determination of Bullish sentiment index cycle﹑incentives mechanism) and experiment process, In the experiment collected 44 bullish sentiment index BSI value (7 days, 14 days, 30 days) by 30 farmers, among them, BSI (7 days) 25, BSI (14 days) 13, BSI (30 days) 6, through analysed the relationship between BSI value and DCE corn futures prices, and corresponded the rate distribution of corn futures price of extreme 30% BSI value to test whether the farmers have rational decision-making ability in the process of selling grain. Finally arrive at our country farmers still do not have the ideal decision-making ability in the process of selling grain.(4)Put forward three policy Suggestions basis of the experimental results: proposals include organization mode such as farmers sales cooperation organization etc; stick to and improve the policy suggestions such as minimum prices and temporary storage policy ect; and should establish food prices control mechanism that dominated by policy tool.