The Impact Of Interest Rates On Real Estate Prices

The real estate industry, as one of national economy pillar industries, has led more than 50 related industries to be in swift growth, and has the pivotal function in the national economy. Formulation and implementation of monetary policy has inevitable to pay attention to the real estate industry. And also the real estate industry is the fund intensity industry, not only the real estate development and operation ,but only the house sale needs the massive financial support, the fund supplies have the extremely vital role to real estate market's development, thus the interest rate change will have the material effect to the real estate market supply-demand relation. However, the real estate market will also be a regional market, the unification monetary policy will certainly bring the different effect to the different urban real estate market. Thus, this article takes the urban difference of the interest rate change to the real estate market influence as the research subject.This article, based on the summary in the domestic and foreign related research foundation, begins from real estate market's supply and demand, takes that the interest rate to real estate market's conduction mechanism as the breakthrough point, and makes the research on the urban difference of the interest rate change to the real estate market influence. In the research process, I select the Yangtze River Delta's four chief cities to be the research sample, gather the real interest rates, the real estate selling price index, the area total output value and township dwellers consumption price index of the four urban cities, and use a more general vector regression model to examine the response situation of the real estate price to the interest rate change, and further analyze , from the interest rate conduction environment, the conduction intermediary and conduction acceptor, the urban difference reason that the interest rate change to the real estate price changes.The primary conclusions are as follows: (1) Interest rate rise has the negative shock effect to the real estate price. The interest rate rise has a relatively bigger impact on home-buyer's capital use cost, real estate market's demand are down more than the supplies, thus interest rate rise has the negative shock effect to the real estate price. (2) The real estate price has the more remarkable urban difference to the interest rate rise's response intensity and the depth. Various urban economy environments, finance ecological environment and main real estate market microscopic body's remarkable difference, cause the difference. (3) the better the economic environment and the finance ecological environment, and the higher the housing consumption occupied a higher proportion city ,more remarkable the interest rate to its real estate price influence. Because this kind of city's economic development level and the monetization degree are high, the housing consumption occupied a higher proportion city is much higher, the interest rate's change can affect rapidly this kind of urban economic variable, the home-buyer has relatively high sensitivity to interest rate, but the developer has actually somewhat low sensitivity to the interest rate, thus it has profounder influence that the interest rate's change to this kind of urban real estate price.Based on the empirical ecidences,this paper provide relevant policy recommendations.