| Currently, it exists a close relationship between real estate market and the financial system in China, and the real estate plays an important role on China’s economic development and people’s livelihood construction. As an important tool of macroeconomic regulation and control, interest rate affects the supply and demand of funds in the market and has a certain impact on real estate price. By studying the impact of interest rate changes on the real estate prices, we can understand the impact of interest rates on the overall and different regional cities in China. It is helpful for the government to adopt targeted regulation policies for different regional cities, which makes the real estate industry to maintain steady and healthy development in the new economic environment.In the empirical research, the paper selects the real estate sales price index, housing sales areas, real estate completed areas and four different deposit and lending rates as variable indexes. Through the analysis method of the unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, establishing VAR model, impulse response and variance analysis, the result shows that compared with the short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates on the impact of housing prices is relatively large. In addition to one-year deposit interest rate, raising interest rates for each variable will inhibit the rise in house prices nationwide. But for different regions of the city, the impact of interest rates on housing prices and the relationship are not the same. The impact of each variable interest rate on housing prices in Shenzhen is more significant, compared to the impact on housing price of Nanjing and Xuzhou. In addition to five years or more of the loan interest rates on the control effect of Shenzhen’s housing prices significantly, other interest rates could not afford to play a fundamental role in Shenzhen prices effectively. And one year deposit rate and five years of housing provident fund loan interest rates have a regulatory role on Nanjing and Xuzhou housing price, while the other variable interest rates rising housing prices could not be suppressed. Therefore, the impact of the same kind of interest rates on different regions of urban housing prices are different, and the impact of different interest rates by the same city are not the same. With respect to the second-tier and third-tier cities, the level of economic development is higher in first-tier cities, the financial system is more perfect and the rigid demand of the market is larger, so the impact of interest rates on housing prices is more obvious.At last, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations. This paper argues that government should correctly guide the flow of the population, and promote the construction of new urbanization. Besides, government should take appropriate real estate control policies for different regions, and strengthen the regulation of the real estate market supply and demand. At last, government should make the interest rates pathway of real estate market unimpededly and adjust the operating mechanism of the real estate market. |
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