The Research On Bussiness Risk Of Province Grid Company Based On Time-of-use Price

Along with the reform of electric power industry and the widespread application of electric power market TOU (peak and valley time-of-use electricity price) policy, the grid companies are facing the income uncertainty which results from the electricity price system in some extent. Therefore they are also facing the business risk in management and development process at the same time. To analysis and calculate this risk accurately, it is a new question which the grid companies must think about carefully. The quantitative analysis of the business risk and the risk circumvention research are relatively new one in our country. How to weight as well as evade TOU business risk is the object of this paper. Fistly, this paper comprehensively elaborates the electrical network market characteristic, the electrical network market transaction pattern, the trade mode and the electrical network market fixed price pattern, and the present situation of domestic and foreign implementation of TOU. Secondly, the paper elaborates the basic theories and principles of the formulation of TOU. And then the paper summarizes the grid company's enterprise business risk. The paper discusses the risks result from TOU and analysis the factors which affect TOU. Thirdly, the paper reviews the research on the business risk measure method. The paper expounds the concepts of business risk value VaR, the conditional business risk value CVaR, and the computational method. And then, explaines the reasons of application conditional business risk value CVaR to measure the business risk. Using the financial domain theory as a source of reference, this paper applies the conditional business risk value CVaR to measure the business risk on the province grid companies, and gives the effective frontier curve under 95% confidences. In view of the grid company's around implementation TOU load curve, TOU major effect factors and the time-of-use price business risk of present grid companies have been analysised. In addition, the paper shows the user electricity consumption changes in the different time interval while the electricity price changing. Then, from Grid Company's point of view, the paper proposes an optimal model for grid companies'profit maximization considering the Purchase cost and the compensation cost, as well as achieves the supply and demand balanced condition with the generating system. According to the possibility the characteristic business risk type, this paper builds a risk model to measure the risk of grid company who applis TOU. Furthermore, the paper widespreads the model to the whole industry level to measure its business risk which results from the use of TOU. Finally, from the empirical study of Hunan Province Electricity Company, the proposed model has been verified. According to the empirical study, the paper proposes several risk aversion tactics.